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Revisiting the link between growth and federalism: A Bayesian model averaging approach

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  • Asatryan, Zareh
  • Feld, Lars P.

Abstract

Following the ambiguous results in the literature aimed at understanding the empirical link between fiscal federalism and economic growth, this paper revisits the question using a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. The analysis suggests that the failure to appropriately account for model uncertainty may have previously led to biased estimates. The results from a sample of 23 OECD countries over 1975-2000 indicate that after controlling for unobserved country heterogeneity, there is no robust link, neither positive, nor negative, between output growth and fiscal federalism (measured as sub-national governments' share of own source tax revenue).

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  • Asatryan, Zareh & Feld, Lars P., 2013. "Revisiting the link between growth and federalism: A Bayesian model averaging approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-049, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13049
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    3. Бухарский В. В. & Лавров А. М., 2020. "Жесткие Бюджетные Ограничения: Теоретические Основы И Проблематика Российских Городов," Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления // Public administration issues, НИУ ВШЭ, issue 1, pages 7-40.
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    5. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    6. Alfonso Mendoza‐Velázquez & Mónica Rubio‐García & Luis D. Conde‐Cortés, 2022. "Fiscal decentralization and regional economic growth: Evidence from Mexico since the 2000s," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 45-65, March.
    7. Paientko Tetiana & Oparin Valeriy & Sarnetska Yana, 2020. "Internal Tax Competition: Does this Result in Economic and Investment Growth?," Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 23-34, March.
    8. Arin, K. Peren & Braunfels, Elias & Doppelhofer, Gernot, 2019. "Revisiting the growth effects of fiscal policy: A Bayesian model averaging approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Bartolini, David & Ninka, Eniel & Santolini, Raffaella, 2017. "Tax Decentralisation, Labour productivity and Employment," MPRA Paper 81070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P. & Schaltegger, Christoph A., 2022. "Fiscal federalism and economic performance new evidence from Switzerland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Lars P. Feld & Jan Schnellenbach, 2016. "Fiscal Federalism, Decentralization, And Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1445-1463, July.
    12. E. Macarena Hernández-Salmerón & Carlos Usabiaga, 2017. "Regional Growth and Convergence in Spain: Is the Decentralisation Model Important?," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 67(3), pages 389-412, September.
    13. Voigt, Stefan & Gutmann, Jerg & Feld, Lars P., 2015. "Economic growth and judicial independence, a dozen years on: Cross-country evidence using an updated Set of indicators," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 197-211.
    14. Andrea Filippetti & Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Decentralization and economic growth reconsidered: The role of regional authority," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(8), pages 1793-1824, December.
    15. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Lars P. Feld & Jan Schnellenbach, 2014. "Fiscal Federalism, Decentralization and Economic Growth: Survey and Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4985, CESifo.
    16. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Federalism; Economic Growth; Bayesian Model Averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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