IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc12/62046.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Give them a break! Did activation of young welfare recipients overshoot in Germany? (A regression discontinuity analysis)

Author

Listed:
  • Wolff, Joachim
  • Nivorozhkin, Anton

Abstract

In Germany, due to special rules 15- to 24-year-old welfare recipients, registered with Public Employment Office, are highly targeted by mandatory activation policies. This paper investigates the effects of the special rules in terms of enhancing the (re-)employment probability, increasing earnings and reducing benefit dependency of targeted people in East and West Germany in the short- and the long-run. Using registry dataset of the inflow into unemployment and welfare over the period October 2005 to January 2006 the paper exploits the age related eligibility rule to identify a suitable counterfactual using a regression discontinuity design. Our estimates imply zero or negative effects of targeting for selected population subgroups. A possible explanation to our finding is that an excessive targeting of young welfare recipients by active labour market programmes may lead to a low quality matches between programmes and participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolff, Joachim & Nivorozhkin, Anton, 2012. "Give them a break! Did activation of young welfare recipients overshoot in Germany? (A regression discontinuity analysis)," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62046, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc12:62046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/62046/1/VfS_2012_pid_905.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruno Crépon & Esther Duflo & Marc Gurgand & Roland Rathelot & Philippe Zamora, 2013. "Do Labor Market Policies have Displacement Effects? Evidence from a Clustered Randomized Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 531-580.
    2. repec:iab:iabfda:200903(en is not listed on IDEAS
    3. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2010. "Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(548), pages 452-477, November.
    4. repec:bla:econom:v:68:y:2001:i:270:p:221-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    6. John Van Reenen, 2004. "Active Labor Market Policies and the British New Deal for the Young Unemployed in Context," NBER Chapters, in: Seeking a Premier Economy: The Economic Effects of British Economic Reforms, 1980–2000, pages 461-496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bart, COCKX & Stéphane, ROBIN & Christian, GOEBEL, 2006. "Income support policies for part-time workers : a stepping-stone to regular jobs ? An application to young long-terme unemployed women in Belgium," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006050, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    8. Wilbert Van Der Klaauw, 2008. "Regression–Discontinuity Analysis: A Survey of Recent Developments in Economics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(2), pages 219-245, June.
    9. Kluve, Jochen, 2010. "The effectiveness of European active labor market programs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 904-918, December.
    10. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
    11. Inés Hardoy, 2005. "Impact of Multiple Labour Market Programmes on Multiple Outcomes: The Case of Norwegian Youth Programmes," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 19(3), pages 425-467, September.
    12. Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz & Julien Pouget, 2009. "Youth Unemployment and Crime in France," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(5), pages 909-938, September.
    13. Centeno, Luis & Centeno, Mário & Novo, Álvaro A., 2009. "Evaluating job-search programs for old and young individuals: Heterogeneous impact on unemployment duration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 12-25, January.
    14. Carling, Kenneth & Larsson, Laura, 2005. "Does early intervention help the unemployed youth?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 301-319, June.
    15. Andrew Clark & Yannis Georgellis & Peter Sanfey, 2001. "Scarring: The Psychological Impact of Past Unemployment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(270), pages 221-241, May.
    16. Jensen, Peter & Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2003. "The response of youth unemployment to benefits, incentives, and sanctions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 301-316, June.
    17. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2001. "Is Unemployment Really Scarring? Effects of Unemployment Experiences on Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 585-606, November.
    18. Mr. Marcello M. Estevão, 2003. "Do Active Labor Market Policies Increase Employment?," IMF Working Papers 2003/234, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Caliendo, Marco & Künn, Steffen & Schmidl, Ricarda, 2011. "Fighting Youth Unemployment: The Effects of Active Labor Market Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 6222, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Martin, John P. & Grubb, David, 2001. "What works and for whom: a review of OECD countries' experiences with active labour market policies," Working Paper Series 2001:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    21. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    22. Thomas A. Mroz & Timothy H. Savage, 2006. "The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
    23. Stefano Scarpetta & Anne Sonnet & Thomas Manfredi, 2010. "Rising Youth Unemployment During The Crisis: How to Prevent Negative Long-term Consequences on a Generation?," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 106, OECD Publishing.
    24. Giacomo de Georgi, 2005. "The New Deal for Young People five years on," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 371-383, September.
    25. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    26. Ehlert, Christoph & Kluve, Jochen & Schaffner, Sandra, 2011. "Training + Temp Work = Stepping Stone? – Evaluating an Innovative Activation Program for Disadvantaged Youths," Ruhr Economic Papers 249, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    27. Ben Lockwood, 1991. "Information Externalities in the Labour Market and the Duration of Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(4), pages 733-753.
    28. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1992. "Loss of Skill During Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-1391.
    29. Laura Larsson, 2003. "Evaluation of Swedish Youth Labor Market Programs," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(4).
    30. repec:zbw:rwirep:0249 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Werner Eichhorst & Tito Boeri & Michela Braga & An de Coen & Galasso Vicenzo & Maarten Gerard & Michael J. Kendzia & Christine Mayrhuber & Jakob Louis Pedersen & Ricarda Schmidl & Nadia Steiber, 2013. "Combining the Entry of Young People in the Labour Market with the Retention of Older Workers," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46988.
    2. Marco Caliendo & Ricarda Schmidl, 2016. "Youth unemployment and active labor market policies in Europe," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, December.
    3. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Uhlendorff, Arne & Wolff, Joachim, 2013. "Sanctions for young welfare recipients," Working Paper Series 2013:26, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Caliendo & Ricarda Schmidl, 2016. "Youth unemployment and active labor market policies in Europe," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, December.
    2. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2011. "What Can Active Labour Market Policies Do?," Papers EC1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Caroline Hall & Kaisa Kotakorpi & Linus Liljeberg & Jukka Pirttilä, 2022. "Screening through Activation? Differential Effects of a Youth Activation Program," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(3), pages 1033-1077.
    4. Marios Michaelides & Peter R. Mueser & Jeffrey A. Smith, 2021. "Do Reemployment Programs For The Unemployed Work For Youth? Evidence From The Great Recession In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 162-185, January.
    5. Werner Eichhorst & Tito Boeri & Michela Braga & An de Coen & Galasso Vicenzo & Maarten Gerard & Michael J. Kendzia & Christine Mayrhuber & Jakob Louis Pedersen & Ricarda Schmidl & Nadia Steiber, 2013. "Combining the Entry of Young People in the Labour Market with the Retention of Older Workers," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46988.
    6. Rune Lesner, 2015. "Does labor market history matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1327-1364, June.
    7. Matteo Picchio & Stefano Staffolani, 2019. "Does apprenticeship improve job opportunities? A regression discontinuity approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 23-60, January.
    8. Kunze, Astrid & Palczyńska, Marta & Magda, Iga, 2023. "The Employment Effects of a Wage Subsidy for the Young during an Economic Recovery," IZA Discussion Papers 16196, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Martin Biewen & Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Marie Paul, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Public-Sponsored Training Revisited: The Importance of Data and Methodological Choices," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(4), pages 837-897.
    10. Marios Michaelides & Peter Mueser & Jeffrey Smith, 2019. "Youth Unemployment and U.S. Job Search Assistance Policy during the Great Recession," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 13-2019, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    11. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    12. Aedin Doris & Donal O'Neill & Olive Sweetman, 2017. "Does Reducing Unemployment Benefits during a Recession Reduce Youth Unemployment? Evidence from a 50% cut in Unemployment Assistance," Economics Department Working Paper Series n279-17.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    13. World Bank Group, 2015. "Toward Solutions for Youth Employment," World Bank Publications - Reports 23261, The World Bank Group.
    14. Bratti, Massimiliano & Ghirelli, Corinna & Havari, Enkelejda & Santangelo, Giulia, 2018. "Vocational Training for Unemployed Youth in Latvia: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," IZA Discussion Papers 11870, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Chakravarty, Shubha & Lundberg, Mattias & Nikolov, Plamen & Zenker, Juliane, 2019. "Vocational training programs and youth labor market outcomes: Evidence from Nepal," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 71-110.
    16. Carlos Henrique Corseuil & Miguel Foguel & Gustavo Gonzaga & Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro, 2014. "Youth Turnover in Brazil: Job and Worker Flows and an Evaluation of a Youth-Targeted Training Program," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0155, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    17. Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Unemployment Scarring Effects: A Symposium On Empirical Literature," Working Papers 453, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    18. Corinna GHIRELLI, 2015. "Scars of early non-employment in a rigid labour market," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2015008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    19. Chakravarty, Shubha & Lundberg, Mattias & Nikolov, Plamen & Zenker, Juliane, 2019. "Vocational training programs and youth labor market outcomes: Evidence from Nepal," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 71-110.
    20. Iva Tomić & Ivan Zilic, 2020. "Working for 200 Euro? The Unintended Effects of Traineeship Reform on Youth Labor Market Outcomes," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 34(3), pages 347-371, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc12:62046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.