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Der Taylor-Zins und die europäische Geldpolitik 1999 - 2009

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  • Treu, Johannes

Abstract

Die von John Taylor entwickelte und nach ihm benannte Regel ist trotz einiger dargestellter Kritikpunkte ein probates Instrument zur Beschreibung und Beurteilung unterschiedlichster Geldpolitiken. So zeigt sich, dass mit Hilfe der Taylor Regel und dem daraus berechneten Taylor Zins die europäische Geldpolitik für den Zeitraum von 1999 bis 2009 ex post beschrieben werden kann. Es lässt sich zudem vermuten, dass die Europäische Zentralbank bei der Durchführung ihrer Politik einer solchen Regel gefolgt ist. Allerdings wurde ein solches Vorgehen von der Europäischen Zentralbank stets verneinet, so dass der hier berechnete Taylor Zins nur als Beurteilungsmaßstab gesehen werden kann. Vor diesem Hintergrund zeigt sich, dass die europäische Geldpolitik für den Zeitraum 2000 bis 2008 als zu expansiv gesehen werden kann. Einzig zu Beginn einer einheitlichen europäischen Geldpolitik im Jahr 1999 kann von einem neutralen Taylor Zins gesprochen werden. Das bedeutet, hier entspricht der berechnete Zins der tatsächlich durchgeführten Geldpolitik. Auffällig ist zudem das Jahr 2009, hier ergibt sich aus der Berechnung ein negativer Taylor Zins und im Vergleich mit dem EONIA und dem EURIBOR eine zu restriktive Geldpolitik für den Euroraum. Jedoch kann dieses Ergebnis aufgrund der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise als Ausreißer gesehen werden. Trotz der guten Beschreibung der europäischen Geldpolitik mit Hilfe des Taylor Zinses muss abschließend fest gehalten werden, dass es sich hierbei nur um eine grobe Orientierungsgröße handelt. Daher sollte bei der Interpretation und besonders bei der Ableitung möglicher zinspolitischer Empfehlungen Vorsicht angebracht sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Treu, Johannes, 2010. "Der Taylor-Zins und die europäische Geldpolitik 1999 - 2009," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 03/2010, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:grewdp:032010
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    Cited by:

    1. Afflatet, Nicolas, 2014. "European Monetary Policy in the Heterogeneous Currency Area and the Open Question of Convergence," EconStor Preprints 93382, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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