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Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint

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  • Claeys Peter

Abstract

I reconsider the short-term effects of fiscal policy when both government spending and taxes are allowed to respond to the level of public debt. I embed the long-term government budget constraint in a VAR, and apply this common trends model to US quarterly data. The main finding is that fiscal consolidation has expansionary effects on output and inflation. Non-Keynesian effects also dominate when debt expands. The expectation of policy adjustments to guarantee fiscal sustainability by future tax rises or spending cuts contracts output today.

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  • Claeys Peter, 2008. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint," wp.comunite 0038, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:0038
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alani, Jimmy, 2020. "Intertemporal Government Budget Constraint: Debts and Economic Growth in Ethiopia, 1990–2018," MPRA Paper 103180, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2020.
    3. Artis, Michael & Moreno, Rosina & Miguelez, Ernest, 2009. "Assessing agglomeration economies in a spatial framework with endogenous regressors," CEPR Discussion Papers 7267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Juan Luis Jiménez & Jordi Perdiguero & Ancor Suárez, 2011. "Debating as a classroom tool for adapting learning outcomes to the European higher education area," IREA Working Papers 201109, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jun 2011.
    5. Liu, Kai & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2015. "Short- and Long-Run Fiscal Elasticities: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 65950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. María Lorena Marí del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2013. "“Fiscal sustainability and fiscal shocks in a dollarized and oil-exporting country: Ecuador”," IREA Working Papers 201306, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2013.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; sustainability; spending; taxes; common trends; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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