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The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?

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  • Alina Carare
  • Robert Tchaidze

Abstract

This paper draws attention to inconsistencies in estimating simple monetary policy rules and their implications for policy advice. We simulate a macroeconomic model with a backward reaction function similar to Taylor (1993). We estimate different versions of a policy rule, using these simulated data.

Suggested Citation

  • Alina Carare & Robert Tchaidze, 2008. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," Working Papers 006-08, International School of Economics at TSU, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia.
    • Handle: RePEc:tbs:wpaper:08-006
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    2. Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2011. "The effects of Minsky moment and stock prices on the US Taylor Rule," MPRA Paper 27840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
    4. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(2), pages 1-31.
    5. Antonio FORTE, 2010. "Some Empirical Evidence Of The Euro Area Monetary Policy," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 42-58.
    6. Frömmel, Michael & Garabedian, Garo & Schobert, Franziska, 2011. "Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 807-818.
    7. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2016. "Conducting Monetary Policy in South Asian Economies: An Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 161-190.
    8. Igor Goncharov & Vasso Ioannidou & Martin C. Schmalz, 2017. "(Why) Do Central Banks Care About Their Profits?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6546, CESifo.
    9. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    10. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    11. Kai D. Schmid, 2010. "Medium-run macrodynamics and the consensus view of stabilization policy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 322/2010, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    12. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2012. "Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1225, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    13. Ronny Mazzocchi, 2013. "Monetary Policy when the NAIRI is unknown: The Fed and the Great Deviation," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/16, Department of Economics and Management.
    14. July Radev, 2017. "Monetary policy and the dynamic disequilibrium," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 96-114.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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