IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rio/texdis/422.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The swings in capital flows and the brazilian crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Ilan Goldfajn

    (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

Abstract

The paper analyzes the Brazilian crisis with emphasis on the role of capital flows and the players involved. It concludes that while foreign investors (both banks and institutional investors) were long in Brazil, the speculation against the currency was not overwhelming. Once their position changed, the crisis erupted. But the change in position cannot be attributed to either a compensatory liquidation of assets story by foreign investor caused by the Russian crisis, neither to the effect of international interest rates. Brazil’s better than expected macroeconomic performance in the aftermath of the crisis was partly due to the fact that the private sector was largely hedged at the moment of the crisis and was insulated from the immediate effects of the devaluation. In addition, the reasons for a low passthrough of the exchange rate depreciation to inflation are related to a depressed level of demand after the crisis that discouraged the passthrough and a previous overvaluation of the exchange rate that was corrected by the nominal devaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The swings in capital flows and the brazilian crisis," Textos para discussão 422, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:422
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econ.puc-rio.br/uploads/adm/trabalhos/files/td422.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    3. Cardoso, Eliana A. & Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1989. "Foreign private capital flows," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 26, pages 1387-1439, Elsevier.
    4. Vittorio Grilli & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1995. "Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 517-551, September.
    5. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions," NBER Working Papers 5352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Eliana Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 161-202, March.
    7. Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
    8. Garcia, Marcio G. P. & Barcinski, Alexandre, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil in the Nineties: Macroeconomic Aspects and the Effectiveness of Capital Controls," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 1), pages 319-357.
    9. Marcelo Soto & Salvador Valdés, 1996. "¿Es el Control Selectivo de Capitales Efectivo en Chile? Su Efecto sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 33(98), pages 77-108.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lucinda, Cláudio Ribeiro de & Farias, Lauro Emilio Gonzalez, 2007. "Crises financeiras recentes e poupança externa," Textos para discussão 166, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    2. Antonio David, 2005. "Do controls on capital inflows insulate domestic variables against external shocks?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 9, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. David, Antonio C., 2007. "Controls on capital inflows and external shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4176, The World Bank.
    4. Ilan GOLDFAJN & Gino OLIVARES, 2001. "Can Flexible Exchange Rates Still “Work” In Financially Open Economies?," G-24 Discussion Papers 8, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Paraguay: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/184, International Monetary Fund.
    6. William C. Gruben & John H. Welch, 2001. "Banking and currency crisis recovery: Brazil's turnaround of 1999," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 12-23.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eliana Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 161-202, March.
    2. Islam, Roumeen, 2000. "Should capital flows be regulated? - a look at the issues and policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2293, The World Bank.
    3. Binici, Mahir & Das, Mitali, 2021. "Recalibration of capital controls: Evidence from the IMF taxonomy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "How Risky is Financial Liberalization in the Developing Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    6. K.S. Jomo & Ilene Grabel & Gerald Epstein, 2003. "Capital Management Techniques In Developing Countries: An Assessment of Experiences From the 1990s and Lessons for the Future," Working Papers wp56, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    7. Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2008. "Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 29-96, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. C. Rangarajan & A. Prasad, 2008. "Capital flows, exchange rate management and monetary policy," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 135-149.
    9. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    10. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Smith, R. Todd, 2002. "Temporary controls on capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 327-351, August.
    11. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 1999. "Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 143-180.
    12. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October.
    13. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "International capital flows and emerging markets: amending the rules of the game?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 43(Jun), pages 137-171.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 9-30, Fall.
    15. Concha, Alvaro & Galindo, Arturo José & Vasquez, Diego, 2011. "An assessment of another decade of capital controls in Colombia: 1998–2008," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 319-338.
    16. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, April.
    17. Ellyne, Mark & Chater, Rachel, 2013. "Exchange Controls and SADC Regional Integration: Measuring SADC Restrictiveness," MPRA Paper 58649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 197-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2004. "Do Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Controls Vary by their Type? Evidence From Malaysia," IMF Working Papers 2004/003, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Mr. Alejandro Lopez Mejia, 1999. "Large Capital Flows: A Survey of the Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 1999/017, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dpucrbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.