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Forecasting the Volatility of Crude Oil: The Role of Uncertainty and Spillovers

Author

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  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa)

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

We use an dataset for the group of G7 countries and China to study the out-of-sample predictive value of uncertainty and international spillovers for the realized variance of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate and Brent) over the sample period from 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. Using the Lasso estimator, we find evidence that uncertainty and international spillovers have predictive value for realized variance at an intermediate (two quarters) and a long (one year) forecasting horizon. This result holds also for upside (good) and downside (bad) variance, and irrespective of whether we use a recursive or a rolling estimation window. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Forecasting the Volatility of Crude Oil: The Role of Uncertainty and Spillovers," Working Papers 202135, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202135
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yan, Xiang & Bai, Jiancheng & Li, Xiafei & Chen, Zhonglu, 2022. "Can dimensional reduction technology make better use of the information of uncertainty indices when predicting volatility of Chinese crude oil futures?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2024. "Stock market bubbles and the realized volatility of oil price returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Shi, Chunpei & Wei, Yu & Li, Xiafei & Liu, Yuntong, 2023. "Combination forecasts of China's oil futures returns based on multiple uncertainties and their connectedness with oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Climate Risks and the Realized Volatility Oil and Gas Prices: Results of an Out-of-Sample Forecasting Experiment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "A Note on Forecasting the Historical Realized Variance of Oil-Price Movements: The Role of Gold-to-Silver and Gold-to-Platinum Price Ratios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-12, October.
    6. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia, 2023. "Do commodity markets catch a cold from stock markets? Modelling uncertainty spillovers using Google search trends and wavelet coherence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pienaar, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022. "Forecasting the realized variance of oil-price returns using machine learning: Is there a role for U.S. state-level uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    8. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2022. "Emerging Trends in Energy Economics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-2, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Spillovers; Realized variance; Crude oil; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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