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The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures

Author

Listed:
  • Manabu Asai

    (Faculty of Economics, Soka University, Japan)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Department of Finance, Asia University, Taiwan, Discipline of Business Analytics, University of Sydney Business School, Australia, Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands, Department of Economic Analysis and ICAE, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain, and Institute of Advanced Sciences, Yokohama National University, Japan)

Abstract

The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility in the presence of leverage effects. We modify the jump-robust covariance estimator of Koike (2016), such that the estimated matrix is positive definite. Using this approach, we can disentangle the estimates of the integrated co-volatility matrix and jump variations from the quadratic covariation matrix. Empirical results for daily crude oil and gold futures show that the co-jumps of the two futures have significant impacts on future co-volatility, but that the impact is negligible in forecasting weekly and monthly horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Manabu Asai & Rangan Gupta & Michael McAleer, 2019. "The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures," Working Papers 201925, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201925
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity Markets; Co-volatility; Forecasting; Jump; Leverage Effects; Realized Covariance; Threshold Estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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