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Model Discovery and Trygve Haavelmo's Legacy

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  • David Hendry
  • Soren Johansen

Abstract

Trygve Haavelmo's Probability Approach aimed to implement economic theories, but he later recognized their incompleteness. Although he did not explicitly consider model selection, we apply it when theory-relevant variables, {xt}, are retained without selection while selecting other candidate variables, {wt}. Under the null that the {wt} are irrelevant, by orthogonalizing with respect to the {xt}, the estimator distributions of the xt's parameters are unaffected by selection even for more variables than observations and for endogenous variables. Under the alternative, when the joint model nests the generating process, an improved outcome results from selection. This implements Haavelmo's program relatively costlessly.

Suggested Citation

  • David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2012. "Model Discovery and Trygve Haavelmo's Legacy," Economics Series Working Papers 598, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:598
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trygve Haavelmo; Model discovery; Theory retention; Impulse-indicator saturation; Autometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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