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Should Germany Have Built a New Wall? Macroeconomic Lessons from the 2015-18 Refugee Wave

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  • Christopher Busch
  • Dirk Krueger
  • Alexander Ludwig
  • Irina Popova
  • Zainab Iftikhar

Abstract

In 2015-2016 Germany experienced a wave of predominantly low-skilled refugee immigration. We evaluate its macroeconomic and distributional effects using a quantitative overlapping generations model calibrated using German micro data to replicate education and productivity differentials between foreign born and native workers. Workers are modelled as imperfect substitutes in aggregate production leading to endogenous wage differentials. We simulate the dynamic effects of this refugee wave, with specific focus on the welfare impact on low skilled natives. Our results indicate that the small losses this group suffers can be compensated by welfare gains of other parts of the native population.

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  • Christopher Busch & Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova & Zainab Iftikhar, 2020. "Should Germany Have Built a New Wall? Macroeconomic Lessons from the 2015-18 Refugee Wave," NBER Working Papers 26973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26973
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Should Germany Have Built a New Wall? Macroeconomic Lessons from the 2015-18 Refugee Wave
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2020-04-13 04:09:32

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    Cited by:

    1. Jaschke Philipp & Sulin Sardoschau & Marco Tabellini, 2021. "Scared Straight? Threat and Assimilation of Refugees in Germany," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2136, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    2. Joan Llull, 2021. "Immigration and Gender Differences in the Labor Market," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 174-203.
    3. Michael A Clemens, 2022. "The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 449-486.
    4. Sachs, Dominik & Colas, Mark, 2020. "The Indirect Fiscal Benefits of Low-Skilled Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 15325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Mark Colas & Dominik Sachs, 2020. "The Indirect Fiscal Benefits of Low-Skilled Immigration," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 38, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Philipp Jaschke & Sulin Sardoschau & Marco Tabellini, 2023. "Scared Straight? Threat and Assimilation of Refugees in Germany," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 384, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    7. Florio, Erminia & Kharazi, Aicha, 2022. "Curtailment of Economic Activity and Labor Inequalities," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1166, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Andri Chassamboulli & Xiangbo Liu, 2024. "Immigration, Legal Status and Fiscal Impact," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    9. Zaharieva, Anna & Iftikhar, Zainab, 2024. "Job Search, Entrepreneurship and Labour Market Outcomes of Natives and Immigrants in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302348, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Michael A. Clemens, 2021. "The Fiscal Effect of Immigration: Reducing Bias in Influential Estimates," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2134, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    11. Mayda, Anna Maria & Senses, Mine & Steingress, Walter, 2023. "Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 18054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Mark Colas & Dominik Sachs, 2020. "The Indirect Fiscal Benefits of Low-Skilled Immigration," CESifo Working Paper Series 8604, CESifo.
    13. Colas, Mark & Sachs, Dominik, 2022. "The Indirect Fiscal Benefits of Low-Skilled Immigration," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 352, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    14. Olovsson, Conny & Walentin, Karl & Westermark, Andreas, 2021. "Dynamic Macroeconomic Implications of Immigration," Working Paper Series 405, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 May 2024.

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    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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