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Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Gauti B. Eggertsson
  • Neil R. Mehrotra
  • Lawrence H. Summers

Abstract

Conditions of secular stagnation - low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth – now characterize much of the global economy. We consider a simple two-country textbook model to examine how capital markets transmit secular stagnation and to study policy externalities across countries. We find capital flows transmit recessions in a world with low interest rates and that policies that trigger current account surpluses are beggar-thy-neighbor. Monetary expansion cannot eliminate a secular stagnation and may have beggar-thy-neighbor effects, while sufficiently large fiscal interventions can eliminate a secular stagnation and carry positive externalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 22172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2021. "Global Imbalances and Policy Wars at the Zero Lower Bound [“Safe Assets”]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2570-2621.
    2. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    3. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Sanjay R. Singh & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 581-634, November.
    4. Caballero, Ricardo & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Farhi, Emmanuel, 2015. "Global Imbalances and Currency Wars at the ZLB," CEPR Discussion Papers 10905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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