IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20382.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Skill Gaps, Skill Shortages and Skill Mismatches: Evidence for the US

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Cappelli

Abstract

Concerns that there are problems with the supply of skills, especially education-related skills, in the US labor force have exploded in recent years with a series of reports from employer-associated organizations but also from independent and even government sources making similar claims. These complaints about skills are driving much of the debate around labor force and education policy, yet they have not been examined carefully. The discussion below examines the range of these charges as well as other evidence about skills in the labor force. There is very little evidence consistent with the complaints about skills and a wide range of evidence suggesting that they are not true. Indeed, a reasonable conclusion is that over-education remains the persistent and even growing situation of the US labor force with respect to skills. I consider three possible explanations for the employer complaints as well as the implications associated with those changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Cappelli, 2014. "Skill Gaps, Skill Shortages and Skill Mismatches: Evidence for the US," NBER Working Papers 20382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20382
    Note: ED LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nber.org/papers/w20382.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kampelmann, Stephan & Rycx, François, 2012. "The impact of educational mismatch on firm productivity: Evidence from linked panel data," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 918-931.
    2. Paul Beaudry & David A. Green & Benjamin M. Sand, 2016. "The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 199-247.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor, 2012. "What Does Human Capital Do? A Review of Goldin and Katz's The Race between Education and Technology," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 426-463, June.
    4. Allen, Jim & van der Velden, Rolf, 2001. "Educational Mismatches versus Skill Mismatches: Effects on Wages, Job Satisfaction, and On-the-Job Search," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 434-452, July.
    5. Régis Barnichon & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2010. "Which industries are shifting the Beveridge curve?," Working Paper Series 2010-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Brian Clark & Clément Joubert & Arnaud Maurel, 2017. "The career prospects of overeducated Americans," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-29, December.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 1998. "Why Do Firms Train? Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 79-119.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2001. "Productivity Differences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 563-606.
    9. David H. Autor, 2001. "Why Do Temporary Help Firms Provide Free General Skills Training?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1409-1448.
    10. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2012. "Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 584-588, May.
    11. James P. Smith & Finis Welch, 1978. "The Overeducated American? A Review Article," UCLA Economics Working Papers 147, UCLA Department of Economics.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2014. "Return of the Solow Paradox? IT, Productivity, and Employment in US Manufacturing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 394-399, May.
    13. Peter Gottschalk & Michael Hansen, 2003. "Is the Proportion of College Workers in Noncollege Jobs Increasing?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 409-448, April.
    14. Marco Manacorda & Barbara Petrongolo, 1999. "Skill Mismatch and Unemployment in OECD Countries Marco Manacorda," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 181-207, May.
    15. McGuinness, Seamus & Sloane, Peter J., 2011. "Labour market mismatch among UK graduates: An analysis using REFLEX data," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-145, February.
    16. Sicherman, Nachum & Galor, Oded, 1990. "A Theory of Career Mobility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(1), pages 169-192, February.
    17. Jesse Rothstein, 2012. "The Labor Market Four Years into the Crisis: Assessing Structural Explanations," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 65(3), pages 467-500, July.
    18. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    19. Harley Frazis & Maury Gittleman & Mary Joyce, 2000. "Correlates of Training: An Analysis Using Both Employer and Employee Characteristics," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 53(3), pages 443-462, April.
    20. repec:bla:ausecr:v:40:y:2007:i:3:p:279-285 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Matthew J. Bidwell, 2013. "What Happened to Long-Term Employment? The Role of Worker Power and Environmental Turbulence in Explaining Declines in Worker Tenure," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(4), pages 1061-1082, August.
    22. Mosca, Irene & Wright, Robert E., 2011. "Is Graduate Under-employment Persistent? Evidence from the United Kingdom," IZA Discussion Papers 6177, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. Gian Carlo Cainarca & Francesca Sgobbi, 2012. "The return to education and skills in Italy," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 187-205, May.
    24. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2013. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 581-622.
    25. Michael S. Christian, 2007. "Liquidity constraints and the cyclicality of college enrollment in the United States," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 141-169, January.
    26. Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Biavaschi, Costanza & Eichhorst, Werner & Giulietti, Corrado & Kendzia, Michael J. & Muravyev, Alexander & Pieters, Janneke & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria & Schmidl, Ricarda, 2013. "Youth Unemployment and Vocational Training," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 9(1–2), pages 1-157, December.
    27. Baert, Stijn & Cockx, Bart & Verhaest, Dieter, 2013. "Overeducation at the start of the career: Stepping stone or trap?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 123-140.
    28. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
    29. Cihan Bilginsoy, 2003. "The Hazards of Training: Attrition and Retention in Construction Industry Apprenticeship Programs," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 57(1), pages 54-67, October.
    30. Jessica Bennett & Seamus McGuinness, 2009. "Assessing the impact of skill shortages on the productivity performance of high-tech firms in Northern Ireland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 727-737.
    31. Lourdes Badillo Amador & Ángel López Nicolás & Luis E. Vila, 2012. "The consequences on job satisfaction of job--worker educational and skill mismatches in the Spanish labour market: a panel analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 319-324, March.
    32. Alan Manning, 2006. "A Generalised Model of Monopsony," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 84-100, January.
    33. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2008. "Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 300-323, May.
    34. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 7-72, March.
    35. Stephen L. Mangum, 1990. "Impending Skill Shortages: Where Is the Crisis?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 46-53, September.
    36. Kostas Mavromaras & Seamus McGuinness & Nigel O'Leary & Peter Sloane & Zhang Wei, 2013. "Job Mismatches and Labour Market Outcomes: Panel Evidence on University Graduates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(286), pages 382-395, September.
    37. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
    38. Burt S. Barnow & John Trutko & Jaclyn Schede Piatak, 2013. "Occupational Labor Shortages: Concepts, Causes, Consequences, and Cures," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number ols, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nunley, John M. & Pugh, Adam & Romero, Nicholas & Seals, R. Alan, 2016. "College major, internship experience, and employment opportunities: Estimates from a résumé audit," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 37-46.
    2. Brunello, Giorgio & Wruuck, Patricia, 2019. "Skill Shortages and Skill Mismatch in Europe: A Review of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12346, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Maryann Feldman & Frederick Guy & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Regional income disparities, monopoly and finance," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(1), pages 25-49.
    4. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Shoag, Daniel & Ballance, Joshua, 2016. "Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 333-347.
    5. Mary A. Burke & Alicia Sasser Modestino & Shahriar Sadighi & Rachel B. Sederberg & Bledi Taska, 2019. "No Longer Qualified? Changes in the Supply and Demand for Skills within Occupations," Working Papers 20-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Berg, Peter B. & Hamman, Mary K. & Piszczek, Matthew & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2015. "The Relationship Between Establishment Training and the Retention of Older Workers: Evidence from Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 9508, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Maryann Feldman & Frederick Guy & Simona Iammarino, 2019. "Regional income disparities, monopoly & finance," Working Papers 43, Birkbeck Centre for Innovation Management Research, revised Feb 2021.
    8. Megan Hague Angus & Jeanne Bellotti & Brittany English & Stephanie Boraas & Kevin Hollenbeck & Sarah Osborn, "undated". "Regional Collaboration to Create a High-Skilled Workforce: Evaluation of the Jobs and Innovation Accelerator Challenge Grants," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 384136d06ae64fca9cab03693, Mathematica Policy Research.
    9. Andrea Filippetti & Frederick Guy, 2016. "Risk-taking, skill diversity, and the quality of human capital: how insurance affects innovation," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1625, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2016.
    10. Brunello, Giorgio & Wruuck, Patricia & Maurin, Laurent, 2019. "Skill shortages and skill mismatch in Europe: A review of the literature," EIB Working Papers 2019/05, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    11. Thomas F. Remington, 2017. "Closing the Skills-Jobs Gap: Russia and China Compared," HSE Working papers WP BRP 53/PS/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    12. Charles R. Hulten, 2018. "The Importance of Education and Skill Development for Economic Growth in the Information Era," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, pages 115-146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Inmaculada García-Mainar & Víctor M. Montuenga-Gómez, 2020. "Over-Qualification and the Dimensions of Job Satisfaction," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 591-620, January.
    2. Joaquin Turmo-Garuz & M.-Teresa Bartual-Figueras & Francisco-Javier Sierra-Martinez, 2019. "Factors Associated with Overeducation Among Recent Graduates During Labour Market Integration: The Case of Catalonia (Spain)," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 1273-1301, August.
    3. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2015. "Labor-Market Polarization over the Business Cycle," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 371-413.
    4. Eisenbarth, Anthony & Chen, Zhou Fu, 2022. "The evolution of wage inequality within local U.S. labor markets," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 56, pages 1-2.
    5. Meroni, Elena Claudia & Vera-Toscano, Esperanza, 2017. "The persistence of overeducation among recent graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 120-143.
    6. Mary A. Burke & Alicia Sasser Modestino & Shahriar Sadighi & Rachel B. Sederberg & Bledi Taska, 2019. "No Longer Qualified? Changes in the Supply and Demand for Skills within Occupations," Working Papers 20-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Yih‐chyi Chuang & Chia‐Yu Liang, 2022. "Overeducation and skill mismatch of university graduates in Taiwan," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1693-1712, August.
    8. Gallipoli, Giovanni & Makridis, Christos A., 2018. "Structural transformation and the rise of information technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 91-110.
    9. Juan Acosta-Ballesteros & María del Pilar Osorno-del Rosal & Olga María Rodríguez-Rodríguez, 2018. "Overeducation of Young Workers in Spain: How Much Does the First Job Matter? Social Indicators Research," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 109-139, July.
    10. Navarini, Lorenzo & Verhaest, Dieter, 2024. "Returns to Education and Overeducation Risk: A Dynamic Model," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1456, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Hanan Morsy & Adamon N. Mukasa, 2019. "Working Paper 326 - Youth Jobs, Skill and Educational Mismatches in Africa," Working Paper Series 2452, African Development Bank.
    12. Wolcott, Erin L., 2021. "Employment inequality: Why do the low-skilled work less now?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 161-177.
    13. Rycx, François & Santosuosso, Giulia & Vermeylen, Guillaume, 2022. "The Over-Education Wage Penalty among PhD Holders: A European Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 15417, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Kihong Park, 2018. "Vertical and horizontal mismatches and career mobility: evidence from female college graduates," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 32(2), pages 109-125, November.
    15. Thomsen, Stephan L, 2018. "Die Rolle der Computerisierung und Digitalisierung für Beschäftigung und Einkommen," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-645, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    16. Baktash, Mehrzad B., 2023. "Overeducation, Performance Pay and Wages: Evidence from Germany," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1327, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    17. Korpi, Tomas & Tåhlin, Michael, 2007. "Educational mismatch, wages, and wage growth: Overeducation in Sweden, 1974-2000," Working Paper Series 10/2007, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research.
    18. Morsy, Hanan & Mukasa, Adamon, 2019. "Youth Jobs, Skill and Educational Mismatches in Africa," MPRA Paper 100394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Antonio Di Paolo & Ferran Mañé, 2014. "Are we wasting our talent? Overqualification and overskilling among PhD graduates," Working Papers XREAP2014-06, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jun 2014.
    20. Daniela Rohrbach-Schmidt & Michael Tiemann, 2016. "Educational (Mis)match and skill utilization in Germany: Assessing the role of worker and job characteristics [Qualifikatorisches (Mis)matching und die Ausnutzung von fachlichen Kenntnissen und Fäh," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 49(2), pages 99-119, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20382. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.