IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnh/spaper/2536.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pathways to disability : predicting health trajectories

Author

Listed:
  • Heiss, Florian
  • Börsch-Supan, Axel
  • Hurd, Michael D.
  • Wise, David A.

Abstract

The paper considers transitions in the health and disability status of persons as they age. In particular, we explore the relationship between health and disability at younger ages (say 50) and health and disability in future ages. We consider for example, the future health path of persons who are in good health at age 50 compared to the future health path of persons who are in poor health at age 50. To do this, we develop a model that jointly considers health and mortality. The key feature of the model is the assumption of underlying “latent” health that determines both mortality and self-reported responses to categorical health and disability questions. Latent health allows for heterogeneity among individuals and allows for correlation of health status over time, thus allowing for state dependence as well as heterogeneity. The model also allows for classification errors in self-reported response to categorical health and disability questions. All of these are important features of health and disability data, as we show with descriptive data. The model accommodates the strong relationship between self-reported health status and mortality, which is critical to an understanding of the paths of health and disability of the survivors who are observed in panel data files. Our empirical analysis is based on all four cohorts of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) -- the HRS, AHEAD, CODA and WB cohorts). We find that self-reported health and self-reported disability correspond very closely to one another in the HRS. We find that both self-reported health and disability are strong predictors of mortality. Health and disability at younger ages are strongly related to future health and disability paths of persons as they age. There are important differences in health and disability paths by education level, race, and gender.

Suggested Citation

  • Heiss, Florian & Börsch-Supan, Axel & Hurd, Michael D. & Wise, David A., 2006. "Pathways to disability : predicting health trajectories," Papers 07-30, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2536
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2536/1/dp07_30.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2001. "Incentive Effects of Social Security Under an Uncertain Disability Option," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-42, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. Borg, Vilhelm & Kristensen, Tage S., 2000. "Social class and self-rated health: can the gradient be explained by differences in life style or work environment?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1019-1030, October.
    3. M. Hurd & A. Kapteyn, 2005. "Health, Wealth, and the Role of Institutions," Springer Books, in: Peter Gijsel & Hans Schenk (ed.), Multidisciplinary Economics, pages 307-332, Springer.
    4. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & van Soest, Arthur, 2008. "Health and wealth of elderly couples: Causality tests using dynamic panel data models," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1312-1325, September.
    5. Florian Heiss, 2006. "Nonlinear State-Space Models for Microeconometric Panel Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 285, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Balia, Silvia & Jones, Andrew M., 2008. "Mortality, lifestyle and socio-economic status," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January.
    7. Contoyannis, Paul & Jones, Andrew M., 2004. "Socio-economic status, health and lifestyle," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 965-995, September.
    8. Peter Adams & Michael D. Hurd & Daniel L. McFadden & Angela Merrill & Tiago Ribeiro, 2004. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise? Tests for Direct Causal Paths between Health and Socioeconomic Status," NBER Chapters, in: Perspectives on the Economics of Aging, pages 415-526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Meer, Jonathan & Miller, Douglas L. & Rosen, Harvey S., 2003. "Exploring the health-wealth nexus," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 713-730, September.
    10. Adda, Jerome & Chandola, Tarani & Marmot, Michael, 2003. "Socio-economic status and health: causality and pathways," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 57-63, January.
    11. Michael D. Hurd & Daniel McFadden & Angela Merrill, 2001. "Predictors of Mortality among the Elderly," NBER Chapters, in: Themes in the Economics of Aging, pages 171-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. James Smith, 2004. "Unravelling the SES health connection," IFS Working Papers W04/02, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. Michael Hurd & Arie Kapteyn, 2003. "Health, Wealth, and the Role of Institutions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(2).
    14. Axel H. Boersch-Supan, 2001. "Incentive Effects of Social Security under an Uncertain Disability Option," NBER Chapters, in: Themes in the Economics of Aging, pages 281-310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. repec:ran:wpaper:191 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub99-1.
    17. Gruber, Jonathan & Wise, David A. (ed.), 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226310114, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Florian Heiss, 2008. "Sequential numerical integration in nonlinear state space models for microeconometric panel data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 373-389.
    2. Florian Heiss, 2011. "Dynamics of self-rated health and selective mortality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 119-140, February.
    3. Heiss, Florian, 2006. "Nonlinear State-Space Models for Microeconometric Panel Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 1157, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    4. Joanna N. Lahey, 2017. "Understanding Why Black Women Are Not Working Longer," NBER Chapters, in: Women Working Longer: Increased Employment at Older Ages, pages 85-109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Florian Heiss & Daniel McFadden & Joachim Winter, 2010. "Mind the Gap! Consumer Perceptions and Choices of Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans," NBER Chapters, in: Research Findings in the Economics of Aging, pages 413-481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Paul L. Latreille, 2009. "Disability, Health and the Labour Market: Evidence from the Welsh Health Survey," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 192-210, May.
    7. Florian Heiss & Daniel McFadden & Joachim Winter, 2008. "Mind the Gap! Consumer Perceptions and Choices," MEA discussion paper series 08156, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    8. Florian Heiss & Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2014. "The Persistence and Heterogeneity of Health among Older Americans," NBER Working Papers 20306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Owen O'Donnell & Eddy Van Doorslaer & Tom Van Ourti, 2013. "Health and Inequality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-170/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Frijters, Paul & Ulker, Aydogan, 2008. "Robustness in health research: Do differences in health measures, techniques, and time frame matter?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1626-1644, December.
    3. Hernández-Quevedo, Cristina & Jones, Andrew M. & Rice, Nigel, 2008. "Persistence in health limitations: A European comparative analysis," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1472-1488, December.
    4. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & van Soest, Arthur, 2008. "Health and wealth of elderly couples: Causality tests using dynamic panel data models," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1312-1325, September.
    5. Majo, M.C., 2010. "A microeconometric analysis of health care utilization in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 1cf5fd2f-8146-4ef8-8eb5-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Angela Lyons & Hyungsoo Kim, 2007. "No Pain, No Strain: Impact of Health on the Financial Security of Older Americans," NFI Working Papers 2007-WP-12, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    7. Julien Hugonnier & Florian Pelgrin & Pascal St‐Amour, 2020. "Closing down the shop: Optimal health and wealth dynamics near the end of life," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 138-153, February.
    8. Oscar Erixson, 2017. "Health responses to a wealth shock: evidence from a Swedish tax reform," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 1281-1336, October.
    9. van Kippersluis, Hans & O'Donnell, Owen & van Doorslaer, Eddy & Van Ourti, Tom, 2010. "Socioeconomic differences in health over the life cycle in an Egalitarian country," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 428-438, February.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11292 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Florence Jusot & Sandy Tubeuf & Alain Trannoy, 2012. "Les différences d'état de santé en France : inégalités des chances ou reflet des comportements à risques ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 455(1), pages 37-51.
    12. Beomsoo Kim & Christopher J. Ruhm, 2012. "Inheritances, health and death," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 127-144, February.
    13. Kim, Hoolda & Mitra, Sophie, 2022. "Dynamics of health and labor income in Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    14. Keith A. Bender & Steffen Habermalz, 2008. "Are There Differences in the Health– Socio‐economic Status Relationship over the Life Cycle? Evidence from Germany," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(1), pages 107-125, March.
    15. Fan, Elliott & Zhao, Ruoyun, 2009. "Health status and portfolio choice: Causality or heterogeneity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1079-1088, June.
    16. Rablen, Matthew D. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2007. "Mortality and Immortality," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 785, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    17. Jonathan Gruber & Helen Levy, 2009. "The Evolution of Medical Spending Risk," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 25-48, Fall.
    18. Kurt R. Brekke & Tor Helge Holmås & Karin Monstad & Odd Rune Straume, 2018. "Socio‐economic status and physicians' treatment decisions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 77-89, March.
    19. James M. Poterba & Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2011. "Were They Prepared for Retirement? Financial Status at Advanced Ages in the HRS and AHEAD Cohorts," NBER Chapters, in: Investigations in the Economics of Aging, pages 21-69, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Kiranmoy Das & Bhuvanesh Pareek & Sarah Brown & Pulak Ghosh, 2017. "A Semiparametric Bayesian Approach to a New Dynamic Zero-Inflated Model," Working Papers 2017001, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    21. Andrew M. Jones & Eddy Van Doorslaer & Teresa Bago D’Uva & Silvia Balia & Lynn Gambin & Cristina Hernández Quevedo & Xander Koolman & Nigel Rice, 2006. "Health and Wealth: Empirical Findings and Political Consequences," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(s1), pages 93-112, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2536. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Katharina Rautenberg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfmande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.