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On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies : The case of Canada

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  • Blaise Gnimassoun

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marc Joëts

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Tovonony Razafindrabe

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This study revisits the important relationship between oil prices and current account for an oil-exporting-country with a diversified economy, namely Canada, by paying particular attention to the time-varying nature of this link. To this end, we rely on an innovative method, the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with sign restriction. We find that while an oil supply shock has a non-significant impact on the current account, an oil demand shock has a positive and significant effect, which tends to increase over time. In addition, by studying the economic factors underlying the evolution of this relation, we show that the propensity to spend oil revenues on imports has a significant negative influence on the pass-through of oil demand shocks on current account. However, a deepening of the domestic financial market and an accumulation of foreign exchange reserves have a significant positive effect on this relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joëts & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2017. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies : The case of Canada," Post-Print halshs-01615104, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01615104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2017.07.001
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    Keywords

    Current account; Oil prices; Time-varying parameters;
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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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