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Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating, and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment

Author

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  • Christophe Bisière

    (TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse)

  • Jean-Paul Décamps

    (LBNC - Laboratoire Biens, Normes, Contrats - AU - Avignon Université, TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse)

  • Stefano Lovo

    (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We conduct a series of experiments that simulate trading in financial markets. We find that the information content of the order flow varies with the strength of subjects' prior beliefs about fundamentals. The presence of intrinsic uncertainty about the asset's fundamentals reduces informational efficiency. This originates from subjects' risk attitudes and biases in the way some subjects update their beliefs. The behavior of approximately 63% of the subjects is consistent with the expected utility maximization. These subjects are either risk averse (52%) or risk loving (11%). About 22% of the subjects display non-Bayesian updating of beliefs: underconfidence emerges for weak prior beliefs, and confirmation bias occurs for strong prior beliefs. Non-Bayesian belief updating reduces market efficiency when subjects' prior beliefs are weak and increases it when the prior beliefs are strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Bisière & Jean-Paul Décamps & Stefano Lovo, 2015. "Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating, and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment," Post-Print halshs-01400243, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01400243
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2013.1886
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    behavior under uncertainty; risk attitude; belief updating; financial market efficiency; laboratory experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment

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