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Determinants of Capital Flows to the New EU Member States Before and During the Financial Crisis

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  • Anton Jevcak
  • Ralph Setzer
  • Massimo Suardi

Abstract

Summary for non-specialistsThis paper looks at capital flows to the new EU Member States from Central and Eastern Europe (NMS10) during the last decade. Firstly, it analyses the role of various types of foreign capital flows – direct investment, portfolio investment, financial derivatives and other types of flows (mainly bank loans) – over time and across countries. Secondly, it explores the determinants of capital flows to the NMS10, distinguishing between factors relating to the external economic and financial environment ("push factors") and factors specific to the recipient NMS ("pull factors"). The econometric analysis shows that external determinants have been important in explaining capital flows to the NMS10. In particular, we find a strong role for euro area interest rates, business cycle, and risk sentiment. At the same time, the ability of the NMS10 to attract foreign capital has been also influenced by domestic economic and financial conditions and policies. Risk sentiment appears to be a robust driver for both the common component of aggregate capital flows to NMS10 and of flows to individual countries. Overall, these results suggest a need for caution on the part of NMS in borrowing too heavily during periods of favourable external financial conditions. As the financial crisis has shown, this increases their vulnerability to a sudden reversal in the availability of financing, which can be largely driven by factors beyond their control.

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  • Anton Jevcak & Ralph Setzer & Massimo Suardi, 2010. "Determinants of Capital Flows to the New EU Member States Before and During the Financial Crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 425, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0425
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    2. Maja Bukovšak & Gorana Lukinić Čardić & Nina Pavić, 2020. "Structure of capital flows and exchange rate: the case of Croatia," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 113-146, February.
    3. Sandra M. Leitner & Robert Stehrer, 2012. "Labour Hoarding during the Crisis: Evidence for selected New Member States from the Financial Crisis Survey," wiiw Working Papers 84, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    5. Miguel Lebre De Freitas & Luis Catela Nunes & Madalena Sampaio Rodrigues, 2018. "Euro Area Membership and the Probability of a Sudden Stop: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 818-836, May.
    6. Zsóka Kóczán, 2018. "Late to the Game? Capital Flows to the Western Balkans," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 20(2), pages 33-67, December.
    7. Jarko Fidrmuc & Reiner Martin, 2011. "FDI, Trade and Growth in CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 70-89.
    8. Jarko Fidrmuc & Reiner Martin, 2011. "Capital Inflows, Exports and Growth in the CESEE Region," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), Post-Crisis Growth and Integration in Europe, chapter 21, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Aneta Krstevska & Magdalena Petrovska, 2012. "The economic impacts of the foreign direct investments: panel estimation by sectors on the case of Macedonian economy," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 1(2), pages 55-73.
    10. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Fabio Filipozzi & Karsten Staehr, 2017. "Uncovered interest parity in Central and Eastern Europe: Expectations and structural breaks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 695-710, September.
    11. Stefan Huemer & Beatrice Scheubel & Florian Walch, 2013. "Measuring Institutional Competitiveness in Europe," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(3), pages 576-608, September.
    12. Ramona Jimborean & Anna Kelber, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investment Drivers and Growth in Central and Eastern Europe in the Aftermath of the 2007 Global Financial Crisis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(1), pages 23-54, March.
    13. Maja Bukovšak & Gorana Lukinić Čardić & Nina Ranilović, 2017. "Structure of Capital Flows and Exchange Rate: The Case of Croatia," Working Papers 52, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    14. Viral Pandya & Sommala Sisombat, 2017. "Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Australian Economy," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(5), pages 121-131, May.
    15. Tomislav Globan, 2015. "Financial integration, push factors and volatility of capital flows: evidence from EU new member states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 643-672, August.
    16. Harkmann, Kersti & Staehr, Karsten, 2021. "Current account drivers and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    17. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Balli, Hatice Ozer, 2013. "International income risk-sharing and the global financial crisis of 2008–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2303-2313.
    18. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Fabio Filipozzi & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Central and Eastern Europe: Sample, Expectations and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2015014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    19. Kersti Harkmann & Karsten Staehr, 2019. "Current account dynamics and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2018-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 23 Jan 2019.
    20. Radulescu Magdalena & Cirstea Cornelia Gabriela & Belascu Lucian Aron, 2020. "FDIs and Commercial Balance in CEE Countries - Special Focus on the Manufacturing Economic Sectors. A VAR Analysis," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 13(2), pages 7-18, September.
    21. Marcin Humanicki & Robert Kelm & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2017. "Foreign Direct and Portfolio Investment in the Contemporary Globalized World: Should They Be Still Treated Separately?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(2), pages 115-135, June.
    22. Egert Juuse & Rainer Kattel, 2015. "Implications of the Transformation of the State-Owned Banking System into System of Foreign-Owned Banks in New Member States for Macroeconomic and Financial Stability," Working papers wpaper103, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    23. Hoffmann, Andreas, 2016. "The collateral effects of political integration on credit growth in the new member states of the EU," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 658-669.
    24. Farkas, Beáta, 2012. "The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis in the Old and New Cohesion Member States of the European Union," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 57(1), pages 53-70.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hobza Mourre structural reform Europe 2020 2020 QUEST III growth employment;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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