IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/108429.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A natural experiment on job insecurity and fertility in France

Author

Listed:
  • Clark, Andrew E.
  • Lepinteur, Anthony

Abstract

Job insecurity can have wide-ranging consequences outside of the labour market. We here argue that it reduces fertility amongst the employed. The 1999 rise in the French Delalande tax, paid by large private firms when they laid off workers aged over 50, produced an exogenous rise in job insecurity for younger workers in these firms. A difference-in-differences analysis of French ECHP data reveals that this greater job insecurity for these under-50s significantly reduced their probability of having a new child by 3.9 percentage points. Reduced fertility is only found at the intensive margin: job insecurity reduces family size but not the probability of parenthood itself. Our results also suggest negative selection into parenthood, as this fertility effect does not appear for low-income and less educated workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Clark, Andrew E. & Lepinteur, Anthony, 2020. "A natural experiment on job insecurity and fertility in France," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108429, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:108429
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/108429/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:revinw:v:60:y:2014:i::p:s233-s255 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alexandre Georgieff & Anthony Lepinteur, 2018. "Partial employment protection and perceived job security: evidence from France," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 846-867.
    3. Klemm, Marcus, 2012. "Job Security and Fertility: Evidence from German Reunification," Ruhr Economic Papers 379, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Arnaud Chevalier & Olivier Marie, 2017. "Economic Uncertainty, Parental Selection, and Children’s Educational Outcomes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 393-430.
    5. Andrew Clark & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2009. "Job security and job protection," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 207-239, April.
    6. Rachel Margolis & Mikko Myrskylä, 2015. "Parental Well-being Surrounding First Birth as a Determinant of Further Parity Progression," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(4), pages 1147-1166, August.
    7. Virginia Sanchez Marcos & Ezgi Kaya & Nezih Guner, 2017. "Labor Market Frictions and Lowest Low Fertility," 2017 Meeting Papers 1015, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Easterlin, Richard A., 2013. "Happiness, Growth, and Public Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 7234, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Annalisa Busetta & Daria Mendola & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(8), pages 185-218.
    10. Walter Bossert & Andrew E. Clark & Conchita d'Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2019. "Economic Insecurity and the Rise of the Right," PSE Working Papers halshs-02325984, HAL.
    11. Francesca Modena & Concetta Rondinelli & Fabio Sabatini, 2014. "Economic Insecurity and Fertility Intentions: The Case of Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 233-255, May.
    12. Eve Caroli & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "Does job insecurity deteriorate health?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 131-147, February.
    13. Daniela Del Boca, 2002. "The effect of child care and part time opportunities on participation and fertility decisions in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 549-573.
    14. Sophie Cetre & Andrew E. Clark & Claudia Senik, 2016. "Happy People Have Children: Choice and Self-Selection into Parenthood," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(3), pages 445-473, August.
    15. Vincent Bignon & Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa, 2018. "The Toll of Tariffs: Protectionism, Education and Fertility in Late 19th Century France," Working papers 690, Banque de France.
    16. Rohde, Nicholas & Tang, K.K. & Osberg, Lars & Rao, Prasada, 2016. "The effect of economic insecurity on mental health: Recent evidence from Australian panel data," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 250-258.
    17. Richard A. Easterlin, 2013. "HAPPINESS, GROWTH, AND PUBLIC POLICY-super-†," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 1-15, January.
    18. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    19. David Lindstrom & Betemariam Berhanu, 1999. "The impact of war, famine, and economic decline on marital fertility in ethiopia," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(2), pages 247-261, May.
    20. Smith, Trenton G. & Stillman, Steven & Craig, Stuart, 2013. "The U.S. Obesity Epidemic:New Evidence from the Economic Security Index," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151419, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Bastien Chabé-Ferret & Paula Eugenia Gobbi, 2018. "Economics Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom," Working Papers ECARES 2018-19, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    22. Alma Cohen & Rajeev Dehejia & Dmitri Romanov, 2013. "Financial Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 1-20, March.
    23. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01383781 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Wolfgang Auer & Natalia Danzer, 2016. "Fixed-Term Employment and Fertility: Evidence from German Micro Data," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(4), pages 595-623.
    25. Rafael Di Tella & Robert J. MacCulloch & Andrew J. Oswald, 2003. "The Macroeconomics of Happiness," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 809-827, November.
    26. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    27. Luc Behaghel, 2007. "La protection de l'emploi des travailleurs Âgés en France : une étude de la contribution Delalande," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 85, pages 41-80.
    28. Joshua Wilde & B�n�dicte H. Apouey & Gabriel Picone & Joseph Coleman, 2017. "The Effect of Antimalarial Campaigns on Child Mortality and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 0616, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    29. Guy Laroque & Bernard Salanié, 2014. "Identifying The Response Of Fertility To Financial Incentives," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 314-332, March.
    30. Böckerman, Petri & Ilmakunnas, Pekka & Johansson, Edvard, 2011. "Job security and employee well-being: Evidence from matched survey and register data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 547-554, August.
    31. Anthony Lepinteur, 2021. "The asymmetric experience of gains and losses in job security on health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 2217-2229, September.
    32. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe [Le coût de la basse fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 141-158, May.
    33. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01311366 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Sara Ayllón, 2019. "Job insecurity and fertility in Europe," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1321-1347, December.
    35. Victor Agadjanian & Ndola Prata, 2002. "War, peace, and fertility in Angola," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(2), pages 215-231, May.
    36. Clark, Andrew E., 2001. "What really matters in a job? Hedonic measurement using quit data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 223-242, May.
    37. repec:adr:anecst:y:2007:i:85:p:02 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Stefani Scherer, 2009. "The Social Consequences of Insecure Jobs," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 93(3), pages 527-547, September.
    39. Sara Rica & Amaia Iza, 2005. "Career Planning in Spain: Do Fixed-term Contracts Delay Marriage and Parenthood?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 49-73, November.
    40. Kind, Michael & Kleibrink, Jan, 2013. "Sooner or Later – Economic Insecurity and the Timing of First Birth," Ruhr Economic Papers 422, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    41. Sommer, Kamila, 2016. "Fertility choice in a life cycle model with idiosyncratic uninsurable earnings risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 27-38.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2023. "Marriage as insurance: job protection and job insecurity in France," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1157-1190, December.
    2. Asai, Yukiko & Koustas, Dmitri K., 2023. "Temporary work contracts and female labor market outcomes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2024. "Workplace Peer Effects in Fertility Decisions," CSEF Working Papers 714, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    4. Lepinteur, Anthony & Clark, Andrew E. & D'Ambrosio, Conchita, 2024. "Unsettled: Job Insecurity Reduces Home-Ownership," IZA Discussion Papers 17038, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with FARC," SocArXiv c2ypd, Center for Open Science.
    6. Sanjesh Kumar & Ranjan Ray, 2024. "Social and emotional well‐being and economic insecurity of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders: A multidimensional approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 1982-2004, May.
    7. Conchita D’Ambrosio & Andrew E. Clark & Rémi Yin, 2023. "Economic Insecurity and Health," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 247(4), pages 69-89, December.
    8. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew E. Clark, 2021. "Children, unhappiness and family finances," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 625-653, April.
    9. Anthony Lepinteur, 2021. "The asymmetric experience of gains and losses in job security on health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 2217-2229, September.
    10. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2021. "Academic Careers And Fertility Decisions," Working Papers 202101, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    11. Nieto, Adrián, 2022. "Can subsidies to permanent employment change fertility decisions?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Pieroni, Luca & d’Agostino, Giorgio & Lanari, Donatella & Scarlato, Margherita, 2023. "Temporary employment and fertility in Italy: The effect of two labor market reforms in the early 2000s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Rohde, Nicholas, 2023. "Economic insecurity, nativism, and the erosion of institutional trust," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1017-1028.
    14. Shao‐Hsun Keng, 2024. "The Causal Effect of Financial Crisis and Its Long‐Run Impact on Fertility," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(329), pages 188-208, June.
    15. Giammarco Alderotti & Raffaele Guetto & Paolo Barbieri & Stefani Scherer & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Unstable Employment Careers and Completed Fertility before and after Labour Market Deregulation in Italy," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2022_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    16. Francesca Carta & Alessandra Casarico & Marta De Philippis & Salvatore Lattanzio, 2024. "Mom's out: employment after childbirth and firm-level responses," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Olga Cantó & Carmelo García Pérez & Marina Romaguera de la Cruz, 2023. "The Role of Tax-Benefit Systems in Shaping Economic Insecurity in the European Union," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 247(4), pages 7-36, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prem, M & Guerra, M. E. & Rodríguez, P & Vargas, J. F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo 18430, Universidad del Rosario.
    2. Pieroni, Luca & d’Agostino, Giorgio & Lanari, Donatella & Scarlato, Margherita, 2023. "Temporary employment and fertility in Italy: The effect of two labor market reforms in the early 2000s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2023. "Marriage as insurance: job protection and job insecurity in France," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1157-1190, December.
    4. Lepinteur, Anthony & Clark, Andrew E. & D'Ambrosio, Conchita, 2024. "Unsettled: Job Insecurity Reduces Home-Ownership," IZA Discussion Papers 17038, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Robson Morgan & Kelsey J. O’Connor, 2022. "Labor Market Policy and Subjective Well-Being During the Great Recession," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 391-422, February.
    6. Anthony Lepinteur, 2021. "The asymmetric experience of gains and losses in job security on health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 2217-2229, September.
    7. Marco Bertoni & Simone Chinetti & Roberto Nisticò, 2023. "Employment Protection, Job Insecurity, and Job Mobility," CSEF Working Papers 684, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    8. Virginia Sanchez Marcos & Ezgi Kaya & Nezih Guner, 2017. "Labor Market Frictions and Lowest Low Fertility," 2017 Meeting Papers 1015, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2022. "Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 93-124, March.
    10. Giammarco Alderotti & Daniele Vignoli & Michela Baccini & Anna Matysiak, 2019. "Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: A Network Meta-Analysis of European Research Findings," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    11. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2020. "Fertility Decisions And Employment Protection: The Unintended Consequences Of The Italian Jobs Act," Working Papers 202003, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    12. Esmée Zwiers, 2024. "Estimating the Lifecycle Fertility Consequences of WWII Using Bunching," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-027/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2021. "Academic Careers and Fertility Decisions," CSEF Working Papers 595, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    14. Adrian Chadi & Laszlo Goerke, 2023. "Seeking shelter in times of crisis? unemployment, perceived job insecurity and trade union membership," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 1041-1088, July.
    15. Dökmeci, Tuna & Rainer, Carla & Schneebaum, Alyssa, 2023. "Economic Security and Fertility: Evidence from the Mincome Experiment," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 332, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    16. Tatiana Karabchuk, 2020. "Job Instability and Fertility Intentions of Young Adults in Europe: Does Labor Market Legislation Matter?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 688(1), pages 225-245, March.
    17. Francesca Modena & Concetta Rondinelli & Fabio Sabatini, 2014. "Economic Insecurity and Fertility Intentions: The Case of Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 233-255, May.
    18. Daniele Vignli & Letizia Mencarini & Giammarco Alderotti, 2018. "Is the Impact of Employment Uncertainty on Fertility Intentions Channeled by Subjective Well-Being?," Working Papers 114, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    19. Marco Novelli & Alberto Cazzola & Aurora Angeli & Lucia Pasquini, 2021. "Fertility Intentions in Times of Rising Economic Uncertainty: Evidence from Italy from a Gender Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 257-284, February.
    20. Shao‐Hsun Keng, 2024. "The Causal Effect of Financial Crisis and Its Long‐Run Impact on Fertility," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(329), pages 188-208, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment protection; layoff tax; perceived job security; difference-in-difference; fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:108429. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.