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The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate

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  • Alberto Caruso

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of macroeconomic "news" (market now-cast errors related to the flow of data releases on macroeconomic fundamentals) on the daily USD/EUR exchange rate. I consider a large number of real-time macroeconomic announcements from both the US and the euro-zone, and the related market expectations as reported by Bloomberg. For the euro-zone I also study country level announcements for the four biggest economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain). The results for the whole sample (1999-2012) show that both the "news" associated with euro-zone releases and those associated with US ones have a significant impact on the USD/EUR exchange rate. However, the effect of the euro-zone "news" has become larger since the 2008 crisis and it is now more sizeable than that of the US "news".

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Caruso, 2016. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/235612
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    Cited by:

    1. Teona Shugliashvili, 2023. "The words have power: the impact of news on exchange rates," FFA Working Papers 5.006, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 31 Jul 2023.
    2. Jolanta Pasionek, 2021. "Response of the USD/MXN Exchange Rate to Macroeconomic Data," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 914-927.
    3. Vania Stavrakeva & Jenny Tang, 2020. "A Fundamental Connection: Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Expectations," Working Papers 20-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Caruso, Alberto, 2019. "Macroeconomic news and market reaction: Surprise indexes meet nowcasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1725-1734.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic news; exchange rate; event studies; real-time data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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