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Is Lisbon far from Maastricht? Trade-offs and Complementarities between Fiscal Discipline and Structural Reforms

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  • Turrini, Alessandro
  • Buti, Marco
  • ,

Abstract

While according to the so-called ?Brussels-Frankfurt consensus? sound fiscal policies and structural reforms support each other, it is often claimed that the EU fiscal framework, by reducing the budgetary room of manoeuvre and the political capital of governments, may deter reforms. The aim of this paper is to explore which factors determine the relation between fiscal discipline and reforms. By means of a simple model we show that, depending on the time horizon of the government, structural reforms may either be complement or substitute with fiscal discipline. If governments are forward-looking, substitution is more likely; if governments are short-sighted, reforms and fiscal discipline may become complement. We provide empirical evidence supporting this argument. In a sample of EU-15 countries over the past three decades, the introduction of the Maastricht constraints at the beginning of the 1990s does not seem to have affected the probability of labour market reforms on average, but had a positive and significant impact on countries with governments facing elections in the current or forthcoming year (which are hence assumed to behave myopically). Our results suggest that if governments are short-sighted, then the expectation that relaxing fiscal constraints may help to boost structural reforms may be ill-founded.

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  • Turrini, Alessandro & Buti, Marco & ,, 2007. "Is Lisbon far from Maastricht? Trade-offs and Complementarities between Fiscal Discipline and Structural Reforms," CEPR Discussion Papers 6204, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6204
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    Cited by:

    1. Milone, Luciano Marcello, 2020. "Structural Reforms in the European Union: What is New after the Crisis?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(3), pages 351-372.
    2. Ali BAYAR & Bram SMEETS, 2009. "Excessive Deficits in the European Union: An Analysis of Entry and Exit Dynamics," EcoMod2009 21500011, EcoMod.
    3. Kurt Bayer & Andreas Breitenfellner, 2018. "What is the appropriate role of structural reforms in E(M)U deepening?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3-18, pages 102-112.
    4. Ali Bayar & Bram Smeets, 2009. "Government Deficits in the European Union: An Analysis of Entry and Exit Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 2703, CESifo.
    5. Marco Buti & Alessandro Turrini & Paul Noord & Pietro Biroli, 2009. "Defying the ‘Juncker curse’: can reformist governments be re-elected?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 65-100, February.
    6. Alessandro Girardi & Paolo Paesani, 2008. "Structural Reforms and Fiscal Discipline in Europe," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 15(2), pages 389-402, September.
    7. Luciano Marcello Milone, 2015. "Structural Reforms in the European Union after the Global Crisis: Problems and Prospects," Working Papers in Public Economics 171, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    8. Kurt Bayer, 2018. "Which Structural Reforms Does E(M)U Need to Function Properly?," wiiw Policy Notes 28, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    9. Campoy Juan Cristóbal & Negrete Juan C., 2010. "Structural Reforms and Budget Deficits in a Monetary Union: A Strategic Approach," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, July.
    10. Angana Banerji & Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu & Mr. James A John & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs & Hanni Schoelermann & Mr. Tao Wu, 2015. "Building a Better Union: Incentivizing Structural Reforms in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2015/201, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Alho, Kari E.O., 2015. "Structural Reforms and Stabilization Policies in the Euro Area," ETLA Working Papers 31, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    12. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:48:y:2010:i::p:617-640 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio, 2014. "Have the euro area and EU governance worked? Just the facts," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-17.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic effects of deficits; Stability and growth pact; Structural reforms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • J58 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Public Policy
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General

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