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The Dynamic Response of Municipal Budgets to Revenue Shocks

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  • Stuhler, Jan
  • Helm, Ines

Abstract

We study the fiscal and tax response to intergovernmental grants, exploiting quasi-experimental variation within Germany’s fiscal equalization scheme triggered by Census revisions of official population counts. Municipal budgets do not adjust instantly. Instead, spending and investments adapt within five years to revenue gains, while adjustment to revenue losses is more rapid. Yet, the long-run response is symmetric. The tax response is particularly slow, stretching over more than a decade. Well-known empirical “anomalies†in public finance such as the flypaper effect are thus primarily a short-run phenomenon, while long-run fiscal behavior appears more consistent with standard theories of fiscal federalism.

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  • Stuhler, Jan & Helm, Ines, 2021. "The Dynamic Response of Municipal Budgets to Revenue Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 16137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16137
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Clemens & Stan Veuger, 2024. "Intergovernmental Grants and Policy Competition: Concepts, Institutions, and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Policy Responses to Tax Competition, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nora Gordon & Sarah Reber, 2020. "Federal Aid to School Districts during the COVID-19 Recession," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 781-804, September.
    3. Cassidy, Traviss, 2017. "Revenue Persistence and Public Service Delivery," MPRA Paper 114464, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2022.
    4. Simon Berset & Martin Huber & Mark Schelker, 2023. "The fiscal response to revenue shocks," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 814-848, June.
    5. Shani, Ron & Reingewertz, Yaniv & Vigoda-Gadot, Eran, 2023. "Intergovernmental grants and local public finance: An empirical examination in Israel," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Flynn, Patrick & Smith, Tucker, 2022. "Rivers, lakes and revenue streams: The heterogeneous effects of Clean Water Act grants on local spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intergovernmental grants; Fiscal transfers; Government spending; Local taxation; Census shock; Flypaper effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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