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Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment

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  • Martin, Ian
  • Gao, Can

Abstract

We define a sentiment indicator that exploits two contrasting views of return predictability, and study its properties. The indicator, which is based on option prices, valuation ratios and interest rates, was unusually high during the late 1990s, reflecting dividend growth expectations that in our view were unreasonably optimistic. We interpret it as helping to reveal irrational beliefs about fundamentals. We show that our measure is a leading indicator of detrended volume, and of various other measures associated with financial fragility. We also make two methodological contributions. First, we derive a new valuation-ratio decomposition that is related to the Campbell and Shiller (1988) loglinearization, but which resembles the traditional Gordon growth model more closely and has certain other advantages for our purposes. Second, we introduce a volatility index that provides a lower bound on the market's expected log return.

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  • Martin, Ian & Gao, Can, 2019. "Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 13454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13454
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    2. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Chukwuma Dim & Grigory Vilkov, 2023. "Generalized Bounds on the Conditional Expected Excess Return on Individual Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 922-939, February.
    3. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2023. "The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options," International Finance Discussion Papers 1376, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Qin, Meng & Mirza, Nawazish & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Exploring Bubbles in the Digital Economy: The Case of China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2024. "Changes in shares outstanding and country stock returns around the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Benjamin Knox & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2022. "A Stock Return Decomposition Using Observables," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Florin Cornel Dumiter & Florin Turcaș & Ștefania Amalia Nicoară & Cristian Bențe & Marius Boiță, 2023. "The Impact of Sentiment Indices on the Stock Exchange—The Connections between Quantitative Sentiment Indicators, Technical Analysis, and Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-26, July.
    8. Liang, Chao & Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Yang, Mo, 2022. "Whether dimensionality reduction techniques can improve the ability of sentiment proxies to predict stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Cai, Jin & Pagano, Michael S. & Sedunov, John, 2023. "The role of investor sentiment in bank liquidity creation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    10. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "Information Shocks in the U.S. and Asset Mispricing in Emerging Economies," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-19, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Ye Li & Chen Wang, 2023. "Valuation Duration of the Stock Market," Papers 2310.07110, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Valuation ratios; Bubbles; Sentiment; Option prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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