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Changing Credit Limits, Changing Business Cycles

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  • Jensen, Henrik
  • Santoro, Emiliano
  • Ravn, Søren Hove

Abstract

In the last decades, capital markets across the industrialized world have undergone massive deregulation, involving increases in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of households and firms. We study the business-cycle implications of this phenomenon in a dynamic general equilibrium model with multiple credit-constrained agents. Starting from low LTV ratios, a progressive relaxation of credit constraints leads to both higher macroeconomic volatility and stronger comovement between debt and real variables. This pattern reverses at LTV ratios not far from those currently observed in many advanced economies, since credit constraints become non-binding more often. As expansionary shocks may make credit constraints non-binding, while contractionary shocks cannot, recessions become deeper than expansions. The non-monotonic relationship between credit market conditions and macroeconomic fluctuations poses a serious challenge for regulatory and macroprudential policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jensen, Henrik & Santoro, Emiliano & Ravn, Søren Hove, 2015. "Changing Credit Limits, Changing Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 10462, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10462
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    Cited by:

    1. Fève, Patrick & Sanchez, Pablo Garcia & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2021. "Costly default and skewed business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Baldi, Guido, 2014. "The economic effects of a central bank reacting to house price inflation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 119-125.
    3. Maffezzoli, Marco & Monacelli, Tommas, 2015. "Deleverage and Financial Fragility," CEPR Discussion Papers 10531, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ghilardi, Matteo F. & Zilberman, Roy, 2024. "Dividend Taxation and Financial Business Cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    5. Garcia Revelo, Jose D. & Levieuge, Grégory, 2022. "When could Macroprudential and Monetary Policies be in Conflict?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2016. "Endogenous credit standards and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 89-111.
    7. Fève, Patrick & Sanchez, Pablo Garcia & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2021. "Costly default and skewed business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Marcus Ingholt, 2018. "LTV vs. DTI Constraints: When Did They Bind, and How Do They Interact?," 2018 Meeting Papers 866, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Battiati, Claudio, 2019. "R&D, growth, and macroprudential policy in an economy undergoing boom-bust cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 299-324.
    10. Eskelinen, Maria, 2021. "Monetary policy, agent heterogeneity and inequality: insights from a three-agent New Keynesian model," Working Paper Series 2590, European Central Bank.
    11. Jensen, Henrik & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2016. "Deepening Contractions and Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 11166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Apergis, Nicholas & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis, 2021. "Credit supply conditions and business cycles: New evidence from bank lending survey data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Franz, Thorsten, 2019. "Monetary policy, housing, and collateral constraints," Discussion Papers 02/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Mølbak Ingholt, Marcus, 2022. "Multiple Credit Constraints and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    Keywords

    Business cycles; Capital-market liberalization; Capital-market regulation; Occasionally non-binding contract constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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