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The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Bacchetta

    (University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Eric van Wincoop

    (University of Virginia - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER))

Abstract

While the 2008-2009 fi nancial crisis originated in the United States, we witnessed steep declines in output, consumption and investment of similar magnitudes around the globe. This raises two questions. First, given the observed strong home bias in goods and fi nancial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicity during this period? Second, what can explain the difference relative to previous recessions, where we witnessed far weaker co-movement? To address these questions, we develop a two-country model that allows for self-fulfi lling business cycle panics. We show that a business cycle panic will necessarily be synchronized across countries as long as there is a minimum level of economic integration. Moreover, we show that several factors generated particular vulnerability to such a global panic in 2008: tight credit, the zero lower bound, unresponsive fi scal policy and increased economic integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2013. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 13-28, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1328
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Why did the panic of 2008 spread abroad?
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-12-09 21:31:00

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    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
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    5. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2018. "Wealth and Volatility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2173-2213.
    6. Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
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    9. Benhabib, Jess & Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei, 2016. "Sentiments, financial markets, and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 420-443.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Recession; International co-movements; Contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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