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The Consequences of Unilateral Withdrawals from the Paris Agreement

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  • Mario Larch
  • Joschka Wanner

Abstract

International cooperation is at the core of multilateral climate policy. How is its effectiveness harmed by individual countries dropping out of the global mitigation effort? We develop a multi-sector structural trade model with emissions from production and a constant elasticity of fossil fuel supply function to simulate the consequences of unilateral withdrawals from the Paris Agreement. Taking into account both direct and leakage effects, we find that a US withdrawal would eliminate more than a third of the world emissions reduction (31.8% direct effect and 6.4% leakage effect), while a potential Chinese withdrawal lowers the world emission reduction by 24.1% (11.9% direct effect and 12.2% leakage effect). The substantial leakage is primarily driven by technique effects induced by falling international fossil fuel prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & Joschka Wanner, 2019. "The Consequences of Unilateral Withdrawals from the Paris Agreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7804, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7804
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    Cited by:

    1. Mahlkow, Hendrik & Wanner, Joschka, 2022. "The Carbon Footprint of Global Trade Imbalances," Conference papers 333482, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Mahlkow, Hendrik & Wanner, Joschka, 2023. "The carbon footprint of global trade imbalances," Kiel Working Papers 2260, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Peterson, Sonja & Wanner, Joschka, 2022. "The impact of trade and trade policy on the environment and the climate: A review," Kiel Working Papers 2233, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Hendrik Mahlkow & Joschka Wanner, 2023. "The Carbon Footprint of Global Trade Imbalances," CESifo Working Paper Series 10729, CESifo.
    5. Mahlkow, Hendrik & Wanner, Joschka, 2023. "The carbon footprint of global trade imbalances," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 108, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; international trade; carbon leakage; fossil fuel supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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