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Uncertainty, Economic Reforms and Private Investment in the Middle East and North Africa

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  • Ahmet Faruk Aysan
  • G. Pang
  • M-A Veganzones-Varoudakis

Abstract

During the 1980s and the 1990s, private investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has on average shown a decreasing or stagnant trend. This contrasts with the situation of the Asian economies, where private investment has always been more dynamic. In this paper, it is empirically shown for a panel of 39 developing economies--among which four MENA countries-- that in addition to the traditional determinants of investment--such as the growth anticipations and the real interest rate--government policies explain MENA's low investment rate. Insufficient structural reforms--which have most of the time led to poor financial development and deficient trade openness¬¬--have been a crucial factor for the deficit in private capital formation. The economic uncertainties of the region have represented another factor of the firm's decisions not to invest. These uncertainties have consisted of the external debt burden and various measures of volatility.
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  • Ahmet Faruk Aysan & G. Pang & M-A Veganzones-Varoudakis, 2006. "Uncertainty, Economic Reforms and Private Investment in the Middle East and North Africa," Working Papers 2006/07, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bou:wpaper:2006/07
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    5. Tidiane Kinda & Patrick Plane & Marie-Ange Veganzones-Varoudakis, 2009. "Productivity and Investment Climate in Developing Countries: How Do MENA Industries Perform?," Working Papers 476, Economic Research Forum, revised Mar 2009.
    6. Mustapha Kamel Nabli, 2007. "Breaking the Barriers to Higher Economic Growth : Better Governance and Deeper Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6914.
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    8. Ahmet Aysan & Marie-Ange Véganzonès –Varoudakis & Zeynep Ersoy, 2007. "What Types of Perceived Governance Indicators Matter the Most for Private Investment in Middle East and North Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(8), pages 1-16.
    9. Tidiane KINDA & Patrick PLANE & Marie-Ange VEGANZONES-VAROUDAKIS, 2008. "Firm-Level Productivity and Technical Efficiency in MENA Manufacturing Industry: The Role of the Investment Climate," Working Papers 200819, CERDI.
    10. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Zeynep Ersoy & M-A Veganzones-Varoudakis, 2007. "Does the Perception of Governance Institutions Matter for Private Investment: The Case of Middle East and North Africa," Working Papers 2007/03, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    11. Syed Muhammad All-E-Raza Rizvi & Marie-Ange Véganzonès-Varoudakis, 2019. "Economic, social, and institutional determinants of domestic conflict in fragile States," Working Papers hal-02340977, HAL.
    12. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 112-123, September.
    13. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Ytallo Brito, 2021. "The link between public debt and investment: an empirical assessment from emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(50), pages 5864-5876, October.
    14. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & M-A Veganzones-Varoudakis, 2007. "How Do Political and Governance Institutions Affect Private Investment Decisions? An Application to the Middle East and North Africa," Working Papers 2007/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    15. Dalila Nicet-Chenaf & Eric Rougier, 2014. "Source and host country volatility and FDI : A gravity analysis of European investment to Middle East and North Africa," Larefi Working Papers 1405, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    16. Kwamivi Mawuli Gomado, 2024. "Impact of uncertainty on economic growth: The role of pro‐market institutions in developing countries," Post-Print hal-04725308, HAL.
    17. Tamy Al-Binali & Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Hasan Dinçer & Ibrahim Musa Unal & Serhat Yüksel, 2023. "New Horizons in Bank Mergers: A Quantum Spherical Fuzzy Decision-Making Framework for Analyzing Islamic and Conventional Bank Mergers and Enhancing Resilience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-37, May.
    18. Dalila NICET-CHENAF & Eric ROUGIER, 2014. "Output Volatility And Fdi To Middle East And North African Countries: A Close-Up On The Source Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 40, pages 139-165.
    19. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2020. "The effects of transitory and permanent inflation uncertainty on investment in Ghana," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-217, February.
    20. Umair Kashif & Junguo Shi & Snovia Naseem & Muhammad Ayaz & Rehan Sohail Butt & Waris Ali Khan & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2023. "Do agricultural commodity prices asymmetrically affect the performance of value-added agriculture? Evidence from Pakistan using a NARDL model," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    21. Akçay Selçuk & Karasoy Alper, 2020. "Determinants of private investments in Turkey: Examining the role of democracy," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 23-49, March.
    22. Mustafa Kilinç & Zübeyir Kilinç & M. Ibrahim Turhan, 2012. "Resilience of the Turkish Economy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S5), pages 19-34, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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