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From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes

Author

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  • Henrique S. Basso

    (Banco de España)

  • Juan F. Jimeno

    (Banco de España, CEPR and IZA)

Abstract

Demographic change and automation are two main structural trends shaping the macroeconomy in the next decades. We present a general equilibrium model with a tractable life-cycle structure that allows the investigation of the main transmission mechanisms by which demography and technology affect economic growth. Due to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing lead to reductions in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. During the demographic transition, the extent growth and factor shares are affected depends on alternative labour market confi gurations and scenarios for the integration of robots in economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrique S. Basso & Juan F. Jimeno, 2020. "From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes," Working Papers 2004, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2004
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    2. Dolado, Juan J & Jimeno, Juan Francisco, 2020. "The Spanish Labour Market at the Crossroads: Covid†19 meets the Megatrends," CEPR Discussion Papers 15452, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Pablo Casas & José L. Torres, 2023. "Automation, automatic capital returns, and the functional income distribution," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 113-135, January.
    4. Albanesi, Stefania & Da Silva, António Dias & Jimeno, Juan F. & Lamo, Ana & Wabitsch, Alena, 2023. "New technologies and jobs in Europe," Working Paper Series 2831, European Central Bank.
    5. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2021. "Demographic changes and the labor income share," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Looking ahead at the effects of automation in an economy with matching frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Jacobs, Arthur, 2023. "Capital-augmenting technical change in the context of untapped automation opportunities," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 155-166.
    8. Arthur Jacobs & Freddy Heylen, 2021. "Demographic change, secular stagnation and inequality: automation as a blessing?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1030, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2022. "Demographic change, technological advance, and growth: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    10. Juan J. Dolado & Florentino Felgueroso & Juan F. Jimeno, 2021. "Past, present and future of the Spanish labour market: when the pandemic meets the megatrends," Applied Economic Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(85), pages 21-41, January.
    11. Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Qiguo Gong, 2023. "Machine endowment cost model: task assignment between humans and machines," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
    13. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Dolado, Juan J. & Felgueroso, Florentino & Jimeno, Juan F., 2020. "The Spanish Labour Market at the Crossroads: COVID-19 Meets the Megatrends," IZA Discussion Papers 13869, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Acocella, Nicola, 2021. "Stagnation," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(2), pages 121-140.
    16. Battisti, Michele & Gravina, Antonio Francesco, 2021. "Do robots complement or substitute for older workers?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    17. Catarina Peralta & Pedro Mazeda Gil, 2021. "Automation, Education, and Population: Dynamic Effects in an OLG Growth and Fertility Model," CEF.UP Working Papers 2102, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    18. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Yang, Chuxiao & Wu, Haitao, 2021. "Does structural labor change affect CO2 emissions? Theoretical and empirical evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    19. Joyce Hsieh, 2023. "Population aging and wealth inequality," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4223-4252, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population ageing; automation; innovation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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