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Growth, Convergence and Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

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  • Roberto Leon Gonzalez
  • Daniel Montolio Estivill

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also, we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. The second objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robust to model speci cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Leon Gonzalez & Daniel Montolio Estivill, 2003. "Growth, Convergence and Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers in Economics 106, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bar:bedcje:2003106
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    3. Marcin Błażejowski & Jacek Kwiatkowski & Jakub Gazda, 2019. "Sources of Economic Growth: A Global Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
    5. Fischer, Manfred M. & Piribauer, Philipp, 2013. "Model uncertainty in matrix exponential spatial growth regression models," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 158, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    6. Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America : The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Discussion Paper 2008-61, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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    8. Magnus, J.R. & Powell, O.R. & Prüfer, P., 2008. "A Comparison of Two Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics," Discussion Paper 2008-39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. León-González, Roberto & Montolio, Daniel, 2015. "Endogeneity and panel data in growth regressions: A Bayesian model averaging approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-39.
    10. DANIELE, Vittorio, 2009. "Development Policy, Public Spending and Regional Convergence in Italy (1996-2007)," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    11. Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Roehn, Oliver, 2007. "Unraveling the fortunes of the fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 494-514, September.
    12. Celbis M.G. & Crombrugghe D.P.I. de, 2014. "Can internet infrastructure help reduce regional disparities? : evidence from Turkey," MERIT Working Papers 2014-078, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Klump, R. & Prüfer, P., 2006. "Prioritizing Policies for Pro-Poor Growth : Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Vietnam," Discussion Paper 2006-117, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. Jesus regstdpo-Cuaresma & Neil Foster & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Determinants of Regional Economic Growth by Quantile," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 809-826.
    15. Daniele VITTORIO, 2009. "Public Spending And Regional Convergence In Italy," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_Summ).
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    17. Celbis, M.G. & Crombrugghe, D. de & Muysken, J., 2014. "Public investment and regional politics: The case of Turkey," MERIT Working Papers 2014-020, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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