IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ucbecw/120416.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought

Author

Listed:
  • Havranek, Tomas
  • Irsova, Zuzana
  • Janda, Karel

Abstract

Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought Abstract: One of the most frequently examined statistical relationships in energy economics has been the price elasticity of gasoline demand. We conduct a quantitative survey of the estimates of elasticity reported for various countries around the world. Our meta- analysis indicates that the literature suffers from publication selection bias: insignificant or positive estimates of the price elasticity are rarely reported, although implausibly large negative estimates are reported regularly. In consequence, the aver- age published estimates of both short- and long-run elasticities are exaggerated twofold. Using mixed effects multilevel meta-regression, we show that after correction for publication bias the average long-run elasticity reaches -0:31 and the average short-run elasticity only -0:09.

Suggested Citation

  • Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel, 2011. "Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought," CUDARE Working Papers 120416, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:120416
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.120416
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/120416/files/CUDARE%201118%20Janda.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.120416?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. T.D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2010. "Picture This: A Simple Graph That Reveals Much Ado About Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 170-191, February.
    2. Orley Ashenfelter & Michael Greenstone, 2004. "Estimating the Value of a Statistical Life: The Importance of Omitted Variables and Publication Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 454-460, May.
    3. Espey, Molly, 1998. "Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, June.
    4. Dahl, Carol A., 1978. "American energy consumption -- Extravagant or economical? : A study of gasoline demand," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 359-373, December.
    5. Stanley, T.D. & Doucouliagos, Chris & Jarrell, Stephen B., 2008. "Meta-regression analysis as the socio-economics of economics research," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 276-292, February.
    6. West, Sarah E. & Williams III, Roberton C., 2007. "Optimal taxation and cross-price effects on labor supply: Estimates of the optimal gas tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3-4), pages 593-617, April.
    7. Orley Ashenfelter & Michael Greenstone, 2004. "Estimating the Value of a Statistical Life: The Importance of Omitted Variables and Publication Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 454-460, May.
    8. Sebastiano Manzan & Dawit Zerom, 2010. "A Semiparametric Analysis of Gasoline Demand in the United States Reexamining The Impact of Price," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 439-468.
    9. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2010. "Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(548), pages 452-477, November.
    10. Ashenfelter, Orley & Harmon, Colm & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 1999. "A review of estimates of the schooling/earnings relationship, with tests for publication bias," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-470, November.
    11. Carol A. Dahl, 1982. "Do Gasoline Demand Elasticities Vary?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 373-382.
    12. T. D. Stanley & Stephen B. Jarrell, 2005. "Meta‐Regression Analysis: A Quantitative Method of Literature Surveys," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 299-308, July.
    13. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The Aid Effectiveness Literature: The Sad Results Of 40 Years Of Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 433-461, July.
    14. Abdel-Khalek, Gouda, 1988. "Income and price elasticities of energy consumption in Egypt : A time-series analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 47-58, January.
    15. Orley Ashenfelter & Michael Greenstone, 2004. "Estimating the Value of a Statistical Life: The Importance of Omitted Variables and Publication Bias," Working Papers 858, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    16. Nicol, C. J., 2003. "Elasticities of demand for gasoline in Canada and the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-214, March.
    17. Robert Goldfarb, 1995. "The economist-as-audience needs a methodology of plausible inference," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 201-222.
    18. Maria Abreu & Henri L. F. de Groot & Raymond J. G. M. Florax, 2005. "A Meta‐Analysis of β‐Convergence: the Legendary 2%," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 389-420, July.
    19. Storchmann, Karl, 2005. "Long-Run Gasoline demand for passenger cars: the role of income distribution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 25-58, January.
    20. T. D. Stanley, 2008. "Meta‐Regression Methods for Detecting and Estimating Empirical Effects in the Presence of Publication Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 103-127, February.
    21. Nancy T. Gallini, 1983. "Demand for Gasoline in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 299-324, May.
    22. Horváthová, Eva, 2010. "Does environmental performance affect financial performance? A meta-analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 52-59, November.
    23. Stanley, T. D. & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2011. "Meta-regression approximations to reduce publication selection bias," Working Papers eco_2011_4, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    24. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Time-Series Minimum-Wage Studies: A Meta-analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 238-243, May.
    25. An-loh Lin & Botsas, Eleftherios N. & Monroe, Scott A., 1985. "State gasoline consumption in the USA : An econometric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 29-36, January.
    26. Archibald, Robert & Gillingham, Robert, 1980. "An Analysis of the Short-Run Consumer Demand for Gasoline Using Household Survey Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(4), pages 622-628, November.
    27. William C. Wheaton, 1982. "The Long-Run Structure of Transportation and Gasoline Demand," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(2), pages 439-454, Autumn.
    28. Zia Wadud & Daniel Graham & Robert Noland, 2009. "A cointegration analysis of gasoline demand in the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(26), pages 3327-3336.
    29. Eltony, M. N. & Al-Mutairi, N. H., 1995. "Demand for gasoline in Kuwait : An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 249-253, July.
    30. Hristos Doucouliagos & T. D. Stanley, 2009. "Publication Selection Bias in Minimum‐Wage Research? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 406-428, June.
    31. Michael Kennedy, 1974. "An Economic Model of the World Oil Market," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 5(2), pages 540-577, Autumn.
    32. Alves, Denisard C. O. & De Losso da Silveira Bueno, Rodrigo, 2003. "Short-run, long-run and cross elasticities of gasoline demand in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 191-199, March.
    33. De Long, J Bradford & Lang, Kevin, 1992. "Are All Economic Hypotheses False?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1257-1272, December.
    34. T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, July.
    35. Bentzen, Jan, 1994. "An empirical analysis of gasoline demand in Denmark using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 139-143, April.
    36. Brons, Martijn & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2008. "A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2105-2122, September.
    37. Uri, Noel D. & Hassanein, Saad A., 1985. "Testing for stability : Motor gasoline demand and distillate fuel oil demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 87-92, April.
    38. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1983. "Gasoline demand in the OECD : An application of pooling and testing procedures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 117-137, July.
    39. Dahl, Carol A, 1979. "Consumer Adjustment to a Gasoline Tax," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 427-432, August.
    40. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    41. Iwayemi, Akin & Adenikinju, Adeola & Babatunde, M. Adetunji, 2010. "Estimating petroleum products demand elasticities in Nigeria: A multivariate cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 73-85, January.
    42. Drollas, Leonidas P., 1984. "The demand for gasoline : Further evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 71-82, January.
    43. T. D. Stanley, 2001. "Wheat from Chaff: Meta-analysis as Quantitative Literature Review," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 131-150, Summer.
    44. Kim, Young-Duk & Han, Hyun-Ok & Moon, Young-Seok, 2011. "The empirical effects of a gasoline tax on CO2 emissions reductions from transportation sector in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 981-989, February.
    45. Pock, Markus, 2010. "Gasoline demand in Europe: New insights," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 54-62, January.
    46. Crôtte, Amado & Noland, Robert B. & Graham, Daniel J., 2010. "An analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4445-4456, August.
    47. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April.
    48. Sipes, Kristin N. & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2001. "The effectiveness of gasoline taxation to manage air pollution," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 299-309, February.
    49. Mehta, Jatinder S. & Narasimham, Gorti V. L. & Swamy, Paravastu A. V. B., 1978. "Estimation of a dynamic demand function for gasoline with different schemes of parameter variation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 263-279, April.
    50. Wirl, Franz, 1991. "Energy demand and consumer price expectations : An empirical investigation of the consequences from the recent oil price collapse," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 241-262, September.
    51. Storchmann, Karl, 2005. "Erratum to "Long-run gasoline demand for passenger cars: The role of income distribution" [Energy Economics, 27 (1), 25-58]," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 687-687, July.
    52. Robert Archibald & Robert Gillingham, 1981. "The Distributional Impact of Alternative Gasoline Conservation Policies," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 426-444, Autumn.
    53. Jon Nelson & Peter Kennedy, 2009. "The Use (and Abuse) of Meta-Analysis in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics: An Assessment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 345-377, March.
    54. Ramsey, J B & Rasche, R & Allen, Bruce T, 1975. "An Analysis of the Private and Commercial Demand for Gasoline," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(4), pages 502-507, November.
    55. Stanley, T. D. & Doucouliagos, Chris, 2007. "Identifying and correcting publication selection bias in the efficiency-wage literature: Heckman Meta-Regression," Working Papers eco_2007_11, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    56. Berndt, Ernst R. & Botero, German, 1985. "Energy demand in the transportation sector of Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 219-238, April.
    57. Akinboade, Oludele A. & Ziramba, Emmanuel & Kumo, Wolassa L., 2008. "The demand for gasoline in South Africa: An empirical analysis using co-integration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3222-3229, November.
    58. Tishler, Asher, 1983. "The demand for cars and gasoline: A simultaneous approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 271-287, January.
    59. Ramanathan, R., 1999. "Short- and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India: An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 321-330, August.
    60. Doucouliagos, Hristos & Stanley, T. D., 2008. "Theory competition and selectivity: are all economic facts greatly exaggerated?," Working Papers eco_2008_06, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martijn Brons & Peter Nijkamp & Eric Pels & Piet Rietveld, 2006. "A Meta-analysis of the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. A System of Equations Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-106/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Brons, Martijn & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2008. "A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2105-2122, September.
    3. Havranek, Tomas & Kokes, Ondrej, 2015. "Income elasticity of gasoline demand: A meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 77-86.
    4. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2011. "Estimating vertical spillovers from FDI: Why results vary and what the true effect is," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 234-244.
    5. Polák, Petr, 2017. "The productivity paradox: A meta-analysis," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 38-54.
    6. Chris Doucouliagos & T.D. Stanley, 2013. "Are All Economic Facts Greatly Exaggerated? Theory Competition And Selectivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 316-339, April.
    7. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    8. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2015. "Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-49.
    9. Bigerna, S. & Bollino, C.A. & Micheli, S. & Polinori, P., 2017. "Revealed and stated preferences for CO2 emissions reduction: The missing link," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1213-1221.
    10. Alatorre, José Eduardo & Ferrer, Jimy & Galindo, Luis Miguel & Reyes, Orlando & Samaniego, Joseluis, 2016. "Cambio climático, políticas públicas y demanda de energía y gasolinas en América Latina: un meta-análisis," Documentos de Proyectos 40841, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2q87432b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    12. Stanley, T.D. & Doucouliagos, Chris & Jarrell, Stephen B., 2008. "Meta-regression analysis as the socio-economics of economics research," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 276-292, February.
    13. Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Publication Bias in Measuring Intertemporal Substitution," Working Papers IES 2013/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2013.
    14. Jimy Ferrer Carbonell & Roberto Escalante Semerena, 2014. "Demanda de gasolina en la zona metropolitana del Valle de México: análisis empírico de la reducción del subsidio," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
    15. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    16. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2012. "Survey Article: Publication Bias in the Literature on Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(10), pages 1375-1396, October.
    17. Hippolyte W. BALIMA & Eric Gabin KILAMA & René TAPSOBA, 2017. "Settling the Inflation Targeting Debate: Lights from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 4080, FERDI.
    18. Costa-Font, Joan & McGuire, Alistair & Stanley, Tom, 2013. "Publication selection in health policy research: The winner's curse hypothesis," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 78-87.
    19. Stanley, T. D. & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2011. "Meta-regression approximations to reduce publication selection bias," Working Papers eco_2011_4, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    20. Burke, Paul J. & Nishitateno, Shuhei, 2013. "Gasoline prices, gasoline consumption, and new-vehicle fuel economy: Evidence for a large sample of countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 363-370.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:120416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dabrkus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.