IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/13886.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Expanded GDP for Welfare Measurement in the 21st Century

In: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Hulten
  • Leonard I. Nakamura

Abstract

The information revolution currently underway has changed the economy in ways that are hard to measure using conventional GDP procedures. The information available to consumers has increased dramatically as a result of the Internet and its applications, and new mobile communication devices have greatly increased the speed and reach of its accessibility. An individual now has an unprecedented amount of information on which to base consumption choices, and the “free” nature of the information provided means that the resulting benefits largely bypass GDP and accrue directly to consumers. This disconnect introduces a wedge between the growth in real GDP and the growth in consumer well-being, with the result that a slower rate of growth of the former does not necessarily imply a slower rate of the latter. The conceptual framework for this analysis is developed in a previous paper (Hulten and Nakamura (2018)), which extended the conventional framework of GDP to include a separate technology for consumer decisions based on Lancaster (1966b) and developed the idea of Expanded GDP (or EGDP). In this paper, we use this framework to provide a detailed critique of existing GDP and price measurement procedures and summarize the existing evidence on the size of the wedge between GDP and EGDP.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Hulten & Leonard I. Nakamura, 2020. "Expanded GDP for Welfare Measurement in the 21st Century," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 19-59, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13886
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nber.org/chapters/c13886.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Brynjolfsson & Yu (Jeffrey) Hu & Michael D. Smith, 2003. "Consumer Surplus in the Digital Economy: Estimating the Value of Increased Product Variety at Online Booksellers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(11), pages 1580-1596, November.
    2. Mark Bils, 2009. "Do Higher Prices for New Goods Reflect Quality Growth or Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(2), pages 637-675.
    3. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
    4. Redding, Stephen J. & Weinstein, David E., 2016. "A unified approach to estimating demand and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. David M. Cutler & Ernst R. Berndt, 2001. "Introduction to "Medical Care Output and Productivity"," NBER Chapters, in: Medical Care Output and Productivity, pages 1-12, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Charles Hulten & Leonard Nakamura, 2017. "Accounting for Growth in the Age of the Internet: The Importance of Output-Saving Technical Change," NBER Working Papers 23315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Charles R. Hulten & Edwin R. Dean & Michael J. Harper, 2001. "New Developments in Productivity Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hult01-1.
    8. Charles R. Hulten, 1978. "Growth Accounting with Intermediate Inputs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 45(3), pages 511-518.
    9. Austan Goolsbee & Peter J. Klenow, 2006. "Valuing Consumer Products by the Time Spent Using Them: An Application to the Internet," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 108-113, May.
    10. Chad Syverson, 2017. "Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 165-186, Spring.
    11. Brent R. Moulton & Karin E. Moses, 1997. "Addressing the Quality Change Issue in the Consumer Price Index," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 305-366.
    12. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2001. "Quantifying Quality Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1006-1030, September.
    13. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, September.
    14. Zvi Griliches, 1992. "Introduction to "Output Measurement in the Service Sectors"," NBER Chapters, in: Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, pages 1-22, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Matthew D. Shapiro & David W. Wilcox, 1996. "Mismeasurement in the Consumer Price Index: An Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 93-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Michael Chernew & David M. Cutler & Kaushik Ghosh & Mary Beth Landrum, 2016. "Understanding the Improvement in Disability-Free Life Expectancy in the US Elderly Population," NBER Chapters, in: Insights in the Economics of Aging, pages 161-201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    18. Maddison, Angus, 2007. "Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199227204.
    19. Dave Byrne & Carol Corrado, 2017. "ICT Prices and ICT Services: What Do They Tell Us About Productivity and Technology," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 33, pages 150-181, Fall.
    20. Fogel,Robert W., 2012. "Explaining Long-Term Trends in Health and Longevity," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107665811.
    21. Zvi Griliches, 1992. "Output Measurement in the Service Sectors," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gril92-1.
    22. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1.
    23. Luis Aguiar & Joel Waldfogel, 2018. "Quality Predictability and the Welfare Benefits from New Products: Evidence from the Digitization of Recorded Music," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 492-524.
    24. Erik Brynjolfsson & Avinash Collis & Felix Eggers, 2019. "Using massive online choice experiments to measure changes in well-being," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(15), pages 7250-7255, April.
    25. Nordhaus, William D., 2005. "Schumpeterian Profits and the Alchemist Fallacy Revised," Working Papers 6, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    26. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(2), pages 132-132.
    27. Carol Corrado & John Haltiwanger & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Introduction to "Measuring Capital in the New Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. William D. Nordhaus, 1996. "Do Real-Output and Real-Wage Measures Capture Reality? The History of Lighting Suggests Not," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of New Goods, pages 27-70, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Economics of New Goods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bres96-1.
    30. Hunt Allcott & Luca Braghieri & Sarah Eichmeyer & Matthew Gentzkow, 2020. "The Welfare Effects of Social Media," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 629-676, March.
    31. David M. Byrne & John G. Fernald & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2016. "Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 109-182.
    32. Dale W. Jorgenson & J. Steven Landefeld & Paul Schreyer, 2014. "Measuring Economic Sustainability and Progress," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number jorg12-1.
    33. Charles R. Hulten, 2001. "Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Hausman, Jerry, 1999. "Cellular Telephone, New Products, and the CPI," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 188-194, April.
    35. Peter Hill, 1999. "Tangibles, intangibles and services: a new taxonomy for the classification of output," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 426-446, April.
    36. Greenstein, Shane & McDevitt, Ryan, 2011. "Evidence of a modest price decline in US broadband services," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 200-211, June.
    37. David M. Cutler & Ernst R. Berndt, 2001. "Medical Care Output and Productivity," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number cutl01-1.
    38. Daniel Sichel & Eric von Hippel, 2019. "Household Innovation, R&D, and New Measures of Intangible Capital," NBER Working Papers 25599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Patinkin, Don, 1973. "In Search of the "Wheel of Wealth": On the Origins of Frank Knight's Circular-Flow Diagram," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 1037-1046, December.
    40. Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "The Value of Health and Longevity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 871-904, October.
    41. Carol Corrado & John Haltiwanger & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital in the New Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number corr05-1.
    42. Van Trinh, Le Thi & Gibson, John & Oxley, Les, 2005. "Measuring the stock of human capital in New Zealand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 484-497.
    43. Diane Coyle, 2014. "GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10183.
    44. Yan Chen & Grace Jeon & Yong-Mi Kim, 2014. "A day without a search engine: an experimental study of online and offline searches," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(4), pages 512-536, December.
    45. Charles R. Hulten & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2015. "Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hult10-1.
    46. Stigler, George J & Becker, Gary S, 1977. "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 76-90, March.
    47. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Landefeld, J. Steven & Schreyer, Paul (ed.), 2014. "Measuring Economic Sustainability and Progress," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226121338, September.
    48. Jay R Corrigan & Saleem Alhabash & Matthew Rousu & Sean B Cash, 2018. "How much is social media worth? Estimating the value of Facebook by paying users to stop using it," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-11, December.
    49. Erica L. Groshen & Brian C. Moyer & Ana M. Aizcorbe & Ralph Bradley & David M. Friedman, 2017. "How Government Statistics Adjust for Potential Biases from Quality Change and New Goods in an Age of Digital Technologies: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 187-210, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Diane Coyle & Leonard Nakamura, 2022. "Time Use, Productivity, and Household-centric Measurement of Welfare in the Digital Economy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 42, pages 165-186, Spring.
    2. Ajayi, V. & Pollitt, M .G., 2022. "Green growth and net zero policy in the UK: some conceptual and measurement issues," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2255, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Daniel Sichel & Eric von Hippel, 2021. "Household Innovation and R&D: Bigger than You Think," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(3), pages 639-658, September.
    4. Boppart, Timo & Li, Huiyu, 2021. "Productivity slowdown: reducing the measure of our ignorance," CEPR Discussion Papers 16478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles R. Hulten & Leonard I. Nakamura, 2017. "Accounting for Growth in the Age of the Internet The Importance of Output-Saving Technical Change," Working Papers 17-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    3. Leonard I. Nakamura, 2020. "Evidence of Accelerating Mismeasurement of Growth and Inflation in the U.S. in the 21st Century," Working Papers 20-41, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Alexander Murray, 2016. "Partial versus Total Factor Productivity: Assessing Resource Use in Natural Resource Industries in Canada," CSLS Research Reports 2016-20, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    5. Martin Feldstein, 2017. "Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income, and Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 145-164, Spring.
    6. Hulten, Charles R., 2010. "Growth Accounting," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 987-1031, Elsevier.
    7. Diewert, Erwin & Fox, Kevin J., 2019. "Productivity Indexes and National Statistics: Theory, Methods and Challenges," Microeconomics.ca working papers erwin_diewert-2019-8, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 25 Apr 2019.
    8. Diewert, Erwin & FOX, Kevin J. Fox & SCHREYER, Paul, 2017. "The Digital Economy, New Products and Consumer Welfare," Microeconomics.ca working papers erwin_diewert-2017-12, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2017.
    9. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Timo Boppart & Peter J. Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2019. "Missing Growth from Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2795-2822, August.
    10. Nicholas Oulton, 2016. "The Mystery of TFP," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 68-87, Fall.
    11. Brynjolfsson, Erik & Collis, Avinash & Diewert, W. Erwin & Eggers, Felix & Fox, Kevin J., 2019. "GDP-B: Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods in the Digital Economy," OSF Preprints sptfu, Center for Open Science.
    12. Leonard Nakamura & Jon Samuels & Rachel Soloveichik, 2017. "Measuring the Free Digital Economy within the GDP and Productivity Accounts," BEA Working Papers 0146, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    13. Charles R. Hulten, 2017. "The Importance of Education and Skill Development for Economic Growth in the Information Era," NBER Working Papers 24141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. David M. Byrne & John G. Fernald & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2016. "Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 109-182.
    15. Charles R. Hulten & Leonard I. Nakamura, 2022. "Is GDP Becoming Obsolete? The “Beyond GDP” Debate," NBER Working Papers 30196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Nicholas Oulton, 2018. "GDP and the System of National Accounts: Past, Present and Future," Discussion Papers 1802, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Jun 2018.
    17. Mariela Dal Borgo & Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel & Annarosa Pesole, 2013. "Productivity and Growth in UK Industries: An Intangible Investment Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 806-834, December.
    18. Seidu Dauda & Abe C. Dunn & Anne E. Hall, 2019. "Are Medical Care Prices Still Declining? A Systematic Examination of Quality-Adjusted Price Index Alternatives for Medical Care," BEA Working Papers 0166, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    19. Charles R. Hulten, 2018. "The Importance of Education and Skill Development for Economic Growth in the Information Era," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, pages 115-146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2023. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Working Paper Series 2023-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13886. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.