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The Short-run Demand for Money: A Reconsideration

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  • Gordon, Robert J

Abstract

The partial-adjustment approach to the specification of the short-run demand for money has dominated the literature for more than a decade. There are three basic problems with this approach. First, the same lag structure is imposed on all variables, and each independent variable enters only as a current value. In contrast a rational individual would respond to different variables (income, interest rates, prices) with quite different lags. Second, when the general price levelis subject to gradual adjustment hut can move quickly in response to supply shocks, the influence of these supply shocks should enter with a negative sign. Third, the estimated equation for real balances may not be a money demand equation at all, but rather its coefficients may represent a shifting mixture of demand and supply responses.The empirical work examines several alternative dynamic specifications, including a generalized partial adjustment framework and the error-correction model. Both of the latter specifications exhibit greater structural stability after 1973 than the standard partial adjustment specification, and the generalized partial adjustment model also yields relatively small errors in post-sample dynamic simulations. Shifts in coefficients as the sample period is extended after 1973 are consistent with the interpretation that the real balance equation no longer traces out structural demand parameters, hut rather a mixture of demand and supply responses.
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  • Gordon, Robert J, 1984. "The Short-run Demand for Money: A Reconsideration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 403-434, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:16:y:1984:i:4:p:403-34
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    2. A. M. M. Jamal & Yu Hsing, 2011. "The Demand for Money in a Simultaneous-Equation Framework," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1929-1934.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    4. Daniel L. Thornton, 1985. "Money demand dynamics: some new evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 67(Mar), pages 14-23.
    5. Yu Hsing, 2006. "Tests of Functional Forms, Currency Substitution, and Capital Mobility of Czech Money Demand Function," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(4), pages 291-299.
    6. Erwin W. Heri, 1988. "Money Demand Regressions and Monetary Targeting Theory and Stylized Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 124(II), pages 123-149, June.
    7. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
    8. Darrat, Ali F. & Al-Mutawa, Ahmed, 1996. "Modelling money demand in the United Arab Emirates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 65-87.
    9. Robert H. Rasche, 1993. "Monetary aggregates, monetary policy and economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 1-35.
    10. Martin Schmidt, 2003. "Monetary dynamics: a market approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 139-152.
    11. Martin B. Schmidt, 2004. "Exogeneity within the M2 Demand Function: Evidence from a Large Macroeconomic System," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 634-646, October.
    12. Richard Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2015. "Persistence Dependence in Empirical Relations: The Velocity of Money," Working Papers (Old Series) 1530, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    13. Chelghoum, Amirouche & Boumimez, Fayçal & Alsamara, Mouyad, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the demand for money in Algeria," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-11.
    14. Yu Hsing, 2007. "Currency Substitution, Capital Mobility and Functional Forms of Money Demand in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 35-48, Jan-Jun.
    15. Tin, Jan, 1999. "Short-run and long-run demand for financial assets A microeconomic perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 467-478, November.
    16. Yu Hsing, 2007. "Impacts of the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate on the Argentine money demand function," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 35-39.
    17. Aaron GRECH, 2014. "The Demand For Currency In Malta," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 49-55.
    18. Schmidt, Martin B., 2001. "The long and short of money and prices: a market equilibrium approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 563-583.
    19. Issing, Otmar, 1997. "Monetary targeting in Germany: The stability of monetary policy and of the monetary system," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 67-79, June.
    20. Arnold, Ivo J. M., 1996. "Stochastic trends in the long-run behavior of velocity: A new test of the institutional hypothesis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 623-641, December.
    21. Tin, Jan, 1999. "The impacts of racial differences on demand for financial assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 269-282, March.
    22. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
    23. Martin Schmidt, 2007. "The long and short of money: short-run dynamics within a structural model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 175-192.
    24. Cheong, ChongCheul, 2003. "Regime changes and econometric modeling of the demand for money in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 437-453, May.
    25. Martin Schmidt, 2003. "Money and prices: evidence from the G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1799-1809.

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