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Revisions of GDP: Data and Assessment of Statistical Properties

Author

Listed:
  • Ekaterina Astafieva

    (Institute of Applied Economic Research RANEPA, Moscow, Russia)

  • Marina Turuntseva

    (Institute of Applied Economic Research RANEPA, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

Monitoring the current situation and forecasting ways of developing economic activity based on official statistical estimates of the various indicators’ values is critical for making timely economic and political decisions and business planning. In this regard, revaluation of data and forecasts based on earlier or later estimates can potentially lead to completely different economic and political decisions. At least five planned or regular revaluations of the gross domestic product indicator are published according to the official Rosstat methodology. Apart from planned revaluations, Rosstat conducts unscheduled recalculations of GDP, associated, for example, with changes in the classifiers of economic activities or with the agricultural census. According to authors’ own methodology, this work reflects data collected on planned and unplanned revaluations of the nominal volume of GDP (in billion rubles) and the index of the physical value of GDP from Q1 1994 to Q1 2020, published monthly in the summary «Short-term economic indicators of the Russian Federation»; vintages of these indicators were shaped both in annual and quarterly terms; Russian specific terms being therefore not well-established in the domestic literature were optionally proposed; results of the analysis of the revisions’ statistical property of the indicators of the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation, both in annual and quarterly frequency were presented. In particular, the analysis was made with regard to systematic biases in the revaluation of indicators of the standardized value of gross domestic product and the index of the physical quantity of GDP, changes in their dynamic properties, average characteristics of revisions, the presence (or absence) of noise and news components in both indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterina Astafieva & Marina Turuntseva, 2021. "Revisions of GDP: Data and Assessment of Statistical Properties," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 65-101.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:ecohse:2021:1:3
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    File URL: https://ej.hse.ru/en/2021-25-1/450437671.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dmitry Gornostaev & Alexey Ponomarenko & Sergei Seleznev & Alexandra Sterkhova, 2022. "A Real-Time Historical Database of Macroeconomic Indicators for Russia," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(1), pages 88-103, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gross domestic product; data vintage; data revision; data revaluation; dichotomy noise/news;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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