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Conjugate priors and variable selection for Bayesian quantile regression

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  • Alhamzawi, Rahim
  • Yu, Keming

Abstract

Bayesian variable selection in quantile regression models is often a difficult task due to the computational challenges and non-availability of conjugate prior distributions. These challenges are rarely addressed via either penalized likelihood function or stochastic search variable selection. These methods typically use symmetric prior distributions such as a normal distribution or a Laplace distribution for regression coefficients, which may be suitable for median regression. However, an extreme quantile regression should have different regression coefficients from the median regression, and thus the priors for quantile regression should depend on the quantile. In this article an extension of the Zellners prior which allows for a conditional conjugate prior and quantile dependent prior on Bayesian quantile regression is proposed. Secondly, a novel prior based on percentage bend correlation for model selection is also used in Bayesian regression for the first time. Thirdly, a new variable selection method based on a Gibbs sampler is developed to facilitate the computation of the posterior probabilities. The proposed methods are justified mathematically and illustrated with both simulation and real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Alhamzawi, Rahim & Yu, Keming, 2013. "Conjugate priors and variable selection for Bayesian quantile regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 209-219.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:64:y:2013:i:c:p:209-219
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2012.01.014
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    4. Schüler, Yves S., 2020. "The impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks," Discussion Papers 14/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2020. "Horseshoe Prior Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2006.07655, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    6. Dimitris Korobilis & Kenichi Shimizu, 2022. "Bayesian Approaches to Shrinkage and Sparse Estimation," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 11(4), pages 230-354, June.
    7. Tomohiro Ando & Jushan Bai, 2020. "Quantile Co-Movement in Financial Markets: A Panel Quantile Model With Unobserved Heterogeneity," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(529), pages 266-279, January.
    8. Seongil Jo & Taeyoung Roh & Taeryon Choi, 2016. "Bayesian spectral analysis models for quantile regression with Dirichlet process mixtures," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 177-206, March.
    9. Yves S. Schüler, 2014. "Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty over the Business Cycle: A Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-02, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
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