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Relación entre política monetaria y estabilidad financiera: un análisis aplicado para Colombia

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Abstract

Este documento analiza la relación que existe entre las decisiones de política monetaria y las condiciones de estabilidad financiera, considerando a los precios de los activos como la variable fundamental, pudiéndose evidenciar a través de estimaciones econométricas que el Banco de la República entre 1996 y 2012 no ha tenido respuesta alguna a las variables asociadas a la estabilidad financiera, como la brecha de los precios de activos y el crédito. Por tanto, se adaptó un modelo teórico y calibrándolo se demostró que cuando el banco central responde a la brecha de los precios de los activos se tiende a una mayor estabilidad financiera. En ese sentido, a través de regresiones fue posible evidenciar que las brechas de los precios de las acciones y del precio de la vivienda responden en forma positiva a una expansión monetaria, definiendo con esto la existencia de un mecanismo por medio del cual el Banco Central de Colombia incidirá en la estabilidad financiera. ****** This paper analyzes the relationship between monetary policy decisions and financial stability conditions, considering the asset prices as the key variable. The econometric estimates show that the Banco de la Republica has not had any response between 1996 and 2012 to the variables associated with financial stability, such as the gap in asset prices and credit. In this sense, we adapt and calibrate a theoretical model that shows that when the central bank responds to the gap in asset prices there is greater financial stability. Therefore one can see that the gaps in share prices and housing prices respond positively to a monetary expansion, defining with it the existence of a mechanism by which the Central Bank of Colombia will affect the financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • José Mauricio Gil León, 2015. "Relación entre política monetaria y estabilidad financiera: un análisis aplicado para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 33(77), pages 133-148, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:013853
    DOI: 10.1016/j.espe.2015.04.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Política monetaria; Estabilidad financiera; Precios de los activos; Regla de Taylor; Tasa de interés;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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