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Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Predictability under Uncertain Economic Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Jonne O. Lehtimäki

    (European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

  • Marianne Palmu

    (Inderes, Turku, Finland)

Abstract

Modern central banks increasingly value monetary policy transparency, and attempt to build credibility by communicating their decisions to the public. This paper studies whether the communication of central banks can be used to explain upcoming changes in their most important monetary policy instrument, the short-term refinancing rate, and whether the public can trust central bank communication during times of financial crisis. This is done by constructing an indicator to measure the predictability of monetary policy by calculating the median of the policy makers’ official comments. The performance of this indicator is studied with ordered probit methods. The results show that predictability was reached relatively well at central bank level during the financial crisis despite the rapid growth of economic uncertainty, and that communication can be a useful tool for central banks during uncertain times.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonne O. Lehtimäki & Marianne Palmu, 2019. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Predictability under Uncertain Economic Conditions," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 8(2), pages 5-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:8:y:2019:i:2:p:5-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Guillermo Peña, 2020. "Monetary Policy after the Great Moderation," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(3), pages 5-26.
    3. Milena Vučinić, 2020. "Fintech and Financial Stability Potential Influence of FinTech on Financial Stability, Risks and Benefits," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(2), pages 43-66.
    4. Jianhao Lin & Jiacheng Fan & Yifan Zhang & Liangyuan Chen, 2023. "Real‐time macroeconomic projection using narrative central bank communication," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 202-221, March.
    5. Lin, Jianhao & Mei, Ziwei & Chen, Liangyuan & Zhu, Chuanqi, 2023. "Is the People's Bank of China consistent in words and deeds?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Arnold Segawa, 2021. "Sentimental Outlook for the Monetary Policies of South African Reserve Bank," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 37-56, July.
    7. Darell Edmond & Vijay Prakash & Lalit Garg & Seema Bawa, 2022. "Adoption of Cloud Services in Central Banks: Hindering Factors and the Recommendations for Way Forward," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 123-143.
    8. Maxime Delabarre, 2021. "FinTech in the Financial Market," Working Papers hal-03107769, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Central banking; Communication; Central Banks and Their Policies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

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