IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v22y2014i4p783-807.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Journey into the Unknown? Economic Consequences of Factor Market Integration under Increasing Returns to Scale

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Schäfer
  • Thomas Steger

Abstract

What are the dynamic consequences of comprehensive integration shocks? The answer to this question appears all but trivial. A dynamic macroeconomic model is set up of a small open economy with capital mobility, migration and increasing returns to scale. The model features multiple equilibria as well as (local and global) indeterminacy. Despite its simplicity, the model creates a rich set of plausible implications. This paper clarifies the mechanics that may lead an integrating economy to the good or to the bad equilibrium by showing how fundamentals and expectations interact in the process of equilibrium selection. The model is applied to replicate two striking empirical characteristics of macroeconomic development in East Germany since 1990.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Schäfer & Thomas Steger, 2014. "Journey into the Unknown? Economic Consequences of Factor Market Integration under Increasing Returns to Scale," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 783-807, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:22:y:2014:i:4:p:783-807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roie.12128
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Bryan Graham & Jonathan Temple, 2006. "Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How Much Can Multiple Equilibria Explain?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-41, March.
    3. Bretschger, Lucas & Steger, Thomas, 2013. "Globalization, The Volatility Of Intermediate Goods Prices, And Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 402-430, March.
    4. Ben Gardiner & Ron Martin & Tyler Peter, 2004. "Competitiveness, Productivity and Economic Growth across the European Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa04p333, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Andrea Boltho & Wendy Carlin & Pasquale Scaramozzino, 1999. "Will East Germany become a new Mezzogiorno?," Chapters, in: John Adams & Francesco Pigliaru (ed.), Economic Growth and Change, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Kyoji Fukao & Roland Benabou, 1993. "History Versus Expectations: A Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(2), pages 535-542.
    7. Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas M. & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "The macroeconomics of TANSTAAFL," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 76-85.
    8. Sebastian Vollmer & Hajo Holzmann & Florian Ketterer & Stephan Klasen, 2013. "Distribution dynamics of regional GDP per employee in unified Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 491-509, April.
    9. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-1026, October.
    10. McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "China's exchange rate impasse and the weak U.S. dollar," Working Papers 73, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    11. repec:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:113-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Crespo Jorge & Martín Carmela & Velázquez Francisco J, 2004. "The Role of International Technology Spillovers in the Economic Growth of the OECD Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-20, December.
    13. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    14. Christophe Deissenberg, Gustav Feichtinger, Willi Semmler and Franz Wirl, 2001. "History Dependence and Global Dynamics in Models with Multiple Equilibria," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 257, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-1069, July.
    16. Galor, Oded, 1992. "A Two-Sector Overlapping-Generations Model: A Global Characterization of the Dynamical System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1351-1386, November.
    17. Hans‐Werner Sinn, 2002. "Germany’s Economic Unification: An Assessment after Ten Years," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 113-128, February.
    18. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2003:i:9:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Reichlin, Pietro & Rustichini, Aldo, 1998. "Diverging patterns with endogenous labor migration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 703-728, May.
    20. Dennis J. Snower & Christian Merkl, 2006. "The Caring Hand that Cripples: The East German Labor Market after Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 375-382, May.
    21. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    22. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    23. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, April.
    24. An, Galina & Iyigun, Murat F., 2004. "The export skill content, learning by exporting and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 29-34, July.
    25. Michael C. Burda, 2006. "Factor Reallocation in Eastern Germany after Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 368-374, May.
    26. Paul Romer, 2010. "Technologies, Rules, and Progress: The Case for Charter Cities," Working Papers id:2471, eSocialSciences.
    27. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    28. Christine Sauer & Geng Li & Kishore Gawande, 2003. "Big push industrialization: some empirical evidence for East Asia and Eastern Europe," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(9), pages 1-7.
    29. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    30. Schäfer, Andreas & Schneider, Maik T., 2015. "Endogenous Enforcement Of Intellectual Property, North–South Trade, And Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(5), pages 1074-1115, July.
    31. Dellas, Harris & de Vries, Casper G, 1995. "Piecemeal versus Precipitous Factor Market Integration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(3), pages 569-582, August.
    32. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie, 1997. "Comparing Four Models of Aggregate Fluctuations due to Self-Fulfilling Expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 96-147, January.
    33. Jennifer Hunt, 2006. "Staunching Emigration from East Germany: Age and the Determinants of Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1014-1037, September.
    34. Harald Uhlig, 2006. "Regional Labor Markets, Network Externalities and Migration: The Case of German Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 383-387, May.
    35. Jati Sengupta & Kumiko Okamura, 1995. "History versus expectations: test of new growth theory," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(12), pages 491-494.
    36. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
    37. Funke Michael & Strulik Holger, 2000. "Growth and Convergence in a Two-Region Model of Unified Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 363-384, August.
    38. Timothy F. Harris & Yannis M. Ioannides, 2000. "History versus Expectations: an Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0014, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    39. Faini, Riccardo, 1996. "Increasing returns, migrations and convergence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 121-136, April.
    40. Toni Mora & Esther Vayá & Jordi Suriñach, 2004. "The Enlargement of the European Union and the Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 6-35, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grossmann, Volker & Schäfer, Andreas & Steger, Thomas M., 2013. "Migration, Capital Formation, and House Prices," IZA Discussion Papers 7225, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Bretschger, Lucas & Schaefer, Andreas, 2017. "Dirty history versus clean expectations: Can energy policies provide momentum for growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 170-190.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Grossmann, Volker & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2012. "Migration, International Trade and Capital Formation: Cause or Effect?," IZA Discussion Papers 6975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Grossmann, Volker & Schäfer, Andreas & Steger, Thomas & Fuchs, Benjamin, 2017. "Reversal of migration flows: A fresh look at the German reunification," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-15.
    5. García-Hiernaux, Alfredo & Guerrero, David E. & McAleer, Michael, 2016. "Market integration dynamics and asymptotic price convergence in distribution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 913-925.
    6. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2022. "Global natural projections," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 949-990, November.
    7. Andreas Schaefer, 2017. "Enforcement of Intellectual Property, Pollution Abatement, and Directed Technical Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(3), pages 457-480, March.
    8. Sebastian Böhm, 2012. "The Effects of Factor Market Integration on the Macroeconomic Development in Unified Germany," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_023, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    9. Böhm, Sebastian, 2015. "Regional economic integration and factor mobility in unified Germany," FSES Working Papers 463, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    10. Volker Grossmann & Thomas Steger, 2013. "Konvergieren die Einkommen zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland? Das deutsch-deutsche Experiment aus wachstumsökonomischer Sicht," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(02), pages 29-32, April.
    11. Grossmann, Volker & Schäfer, Andreas & Steger, Thomas M., 2015. "On the Interaction Between Migration, Capital Formation, and the Price for Housing Services," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113172, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Volker Grossmann & Thomas Steger, 2013. "Konvergieren die Einkommen zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland? Das deutsch-deutsche Experiment aus wachstumsökonomischer Sicht," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(02), pages 29-32, April.
    2. Böhm, Sebastian, 2015. "Regional economic integration and factor mobility in unified Germany," FSES Working Papers 463, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Grossmann, Volker & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2012. "Migration, International Trade and Capital Formation: Cause or Effect?," IZA Discussion Papers 6975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 96-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    5. Carine Nourry, 2012. "Dasgupta, D.: Modern growth theory," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 105(1), pages 97-100, January.
    6. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.
    7. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    8. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    9. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "Lecture Notes on Economic Growth(II): Five Prototype Models of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 3564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. MARTINS, Ana Paula, 2015. "Increasing Returns And Endogenous Growth: Market Size And Taste For Variety," Academica Science Journal, Economica Series, Dimitrie Cantemir University, Faculty of Economical Science, vol. 1(5), pages 3-33, June.
    11. Andrew Bernard & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 1997. "Public and private provision of infrastructure and economic development," Textos para discussão 375, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    12. Stolpe, Michael, 1995. "Technology and the dynamics of specialization in open economies," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 738, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Senbeta, Sisay, 2008. "The nexus between FDI and Total Factor Productivity Growth in Sub Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 31067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ekaterina Ponomareva & Alexandra Bozhechkova & Alexandr Knobel, 2012. "Factors of Economic Growth," Published Papers 172, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    15. Alan M. Taylor, 1995. "Growth and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region: On the Role of Openness, Trade and Migration," NBER Working Papers 5276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. García Callejas, Danny, 2011. "Per Capita GDP Convergence in South America, 1960-2007," Borradores Departamento de Economía 8983, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    17. Stolpe, Michael, 1992. "Ansätze der neuen Wachstumstheorie: ein Literaturüberblick," Kiel Working Papers 508, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Argentino Pessoa, 2014. "Agglomeration and regional growth policy: externalities versus comparative advantages," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, August.
    19. Bloom, David E & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2003. "Geography and Poverty Traps," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 355-378, December.
    20. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1990. "Lecture Notes on Economic Growth: Five Prototype Models of Endogenous Growth. Volume II," Center Discussion Papers 321324, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:22:y:2014:i:4:p:783-807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.