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The COVID‐19 pandemic and agriculture: Short‐ and long‐run implications for international trade relations

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  • William A. Kerr

Abstract

The COVID‐19 pandemic has put unprecedented strain on food supply chains. Given the ever‐increasing degree of globalization, those supply chains very often stretch across international borders. In the short run, countries have largely been working to keep those supply chains intact and operating efficiently so that panic buying is cooled and shifts in consumption habits arising from personal isolation can be accommodated. Once the crisis has passed, based on what has been learned regarding the international food system's resilience, governments may wish to strengthen institutions that govern international trade. On the other hand, based on their COVID‐19 experience, governments may feel that they are too dependent on foreign sources of supply and may wish to reverse the impacts of globalization on their food systems. As a result, they may become increasingly isolationist, eschewing international cooperation. Which of these opposing forces will prevail may depend on the paths economies follow after the disequilibrium precipitated by the pandemic. La pandémie de COVID‐19 a exercé une pression sans précédent sur les chaînes d′approvisionnement alimentaire. Étant donné le degré de mondialisation de plus en plus grand, ces chaînes d′approvisionnement s′étendent très souvent au‐delà des frontières internationales. À court terme, les pays ont œuvré pour maintenir ces chaînes d′approvisionnement intactes et fonctionner efficacement afin que les achats de panique soient refroidis et que les changements dans les habitudes de consommation résultant de l′isolement personnel puissent être pris en compte. Une fois la crise passée, sur la base de ce qui a été appris concernant la résilience du système alimentaire international, les gouvernements pourraient souhaiter renforcer les institutions qui régissent le commerce international. D′un autre côté, sur la base de leur expérience COVID‐19, les gouvernements peuvent estimer qu′ils sont trop dépendants des sources d′approvisionnement étrangères et peuvent souhaiter inverser les impacts de la mondialisation sur leurs systèmes alimentaires. En conséquence, ils peuvent devenir de plus en plus isolationnistes, évitant la coopération internationale. Laquelle de ces forces opposées prévaudra peut dépendre des voies qui seront empruntées par les économies après le déséquilibre provoqué par la pandémie.

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  • William A. Kerr, 2020. "The COVID‐19 pandemic and agriculture: Short‐ and long‐run implications for international trade relations," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 225-229, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:68:y:2020:i:2:p:225-229
    DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12230
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    1. Kerr, William A., 2016. "Disequilibrium, Trade and the Consequenses of Adjustment," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 17(2), pages 1-17, December.
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    5. Ryan Cardwell & William A. Kerr, 2014. "Can Export Restrictions be Disciplined Through the World Trade Organisation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1186-1196, August.
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    2. Lota Tamini, 2020. "Comment renforcer les chaînes de valeur bioalimentaires québécoises pour leur meilleure compétitivité sur le marché local et à l’étranger ?," CIRANO Project Reports 2020rp-31, CIRANO.
    3. Marta Marson & Donatella Saccone & Elena Vallino, 2023. "Total trade, cereals trade and undernourishment: new empirical evidence for developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 299-332, May.
    4. Ivan Montiel & Junghoon Park & Bryan W. Husted & Andres Velez-Calle, 2022. "Tracing the connections between international business and communicable diseases," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(8), pages 1785-1804, October.
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    6. Ghazani, Majid Mirzaee & Khosravi, Reza & Caporin, Massimiliano, 2023. "Analyzing interconnection among selected commodities in the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Brenda Cardoso & Luiza Cunha & Adriana Leiras & Paulo Gonçalves & Hugo Yoshizaki & Irineu de Brito Junior & Frederico Pedroso, 2021. "Causal Impacts of Epidemics and Pandemics on Food Supply Chains: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-28, August.
    8. Messner, Wolfgang, 2024. "Distance is the spice, but not the whole enchilada: Country-pair psychic distance stimuli and country fixed effects in a deep learning implementation of the trade flow model," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1).
    9. Tomas Baležentis & Mangirdas Morkūnas & Agnė Žičkienė & Artiom Volkov & Erika Ribašauskienė & Dalia Štreimikienė, 2021. "Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-31, October.
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    13. Kamal Vatta & Shruti Bhogal & Adam S. Green & Heena Sharma & Cameron A. Petrie & Sandeep Dixit, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic-Induced Disruptions and Implications for National Food Security and Farm Incomes: Farm-Level Evidence from Indian Punjab," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-13, April.
    14. Obvious Mapiye & Godswill Makombe & Annelin Molotsi & Kennedy Dzama & Cletos Mapiye, 2021. "Towards a Revolutionized Agricultural Extension System for the Sustainability of Smallholder Livestock Production in Developing Countries: The Potential Role of ICTs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-18, May.
    15. Rogna, Marco, 2023. "The Effects of Rising Prices on Corn Production in Western African Countries," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334549, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    16. Ellen Johnson & Anne Marie Thow & Nicholas Nisbett, 2023. "Opportunities to strengthen trade policy for food and nutrition security: an analysis of two agricultural trade policy decisions," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(4), pages 1109-1125, August.
    17. David Swanson & Luis Santamaria, 2021. "Pandemic Supply Chain Research: A Structured Literature Review and Bibliometric Network Analysis," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-22, January.
    18. Samir Mili & Maria Bouhaddane, 2021. "Forecasting Global Developments and Challenges in Olive Oil Supply and Demand: A Delphi Survey from Spain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, February.
    19. Nishant Saravanan & Jessica Olivares-Aguila & Alejandro Vital-Soto, 2022. "Bibliometric and Text Analytics Approaches to Review COVID-19 Impacts on Supply Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-33, November.
    20. May T. Yeung & William A. Kerr, 2021. "Canadian Agri-Food Export Opportunities in a Covid-19 World," SPP Briefing Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 14(5), February.
    21. Ouoba, Youmanli & Sawadogo, Natéwindé, 2022. "Food security, poverty and household resilience to COVID-19 in Burkina Faso: Evidence from urban small traders’ households," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    22. Hagera Dilnashin & Hareram Birla & Vishnu D. Rajput & Chetan Keswani & Surya P. Singh & Tatiana M. Minkina & Saglara S. Mandzhieva, 2021. "Economic Shock and Agri-Sector: Post-COVID-19 Scenario in India," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1479-1490, December.
    23. Tudorache Adrian Tudor & Nicolescu Luminița, 2021. "Opinions on the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis and the world after – an international perspective," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 873-887, December.

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