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Do Different Estimation Methods Lead to Implausible Differences in the Size of Nonobserved or Shadow Economies? A Preliminary Answer

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  • Friedrich Schneider

    (Research Institute for Finance and Banking, Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Linz, Austria)

Abstract

This review evaluates three micro and three macro estimation approaches to determine whether unrealistic differences exist in estimating the size of nonobserved/shadow economies. While some macro-MIMIC estimates are higher than estimates using the statistical discrepancy approach, when adjusting for double-counting, MIMIC approaches provide similar results. Macro approaches usually cover not only typical shadow economy activities, but also voluntary work, do-it-yourself activities, and classical crime activities; by nature, macro approaches will lead to higher and more accurate estimates than micro approaches. However, if certain adjustments are made, the estimated size of the shadow economy using the MIMIC approach comes close to the size of the shadow economy indicated by micro survey approaches. Hence, claims that macro approaches are unrealistically high and rely on unrealistic assumptions must be reconsidered.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Schneider, 2023. "Do Different Estimation Methods Lead to Implausible Differences in the Size of Nonobserved or Shadow Economies? A Preliminary Answer," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 15(1), pages 257-277, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:reseco:v:15:y:2023:p:257-277
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-resource-090822-114308
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    Cited by:

    1. Massomeh Hajilee & Farhang Niroomand & Linda A. Hayes, 2023. "The relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy in OECD countries: An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 539-566, September.
    2. Arezzo, Maria Felice & Horodnic, Ioana A. & Williams, Colin C. & Guagnano, Giuseppina, 2024. "Measuring participation in undeclared work in Europe using survey data: A method for resolving social desirability bias," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Burgstaller, Lilith & Feld, Lars P. & Pfeil, Katharina, 2022. "Working in the shadow: Survey techniques for measuring and explaining undeclared work," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 661-671.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    MIMIC estimation approaches; micro survey approach; survey technique; consumption-income gap approach; shadow economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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