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Forecasting CocaCola_Sales.R
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Forecasting CocaCola_Sales.R
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library(forecast)
library(fpp)
library(smooth)
library(readxl)
Cocacola <- read_excel(file.choose())
View(Cocacola)
windows()
plot(Cocacola$Sales,type="o")
Q1 <- ifelse(grepl("Q1",Cocacola$Quarter),'1','0')
Q2 <- ifelse(grepl("Q2",Cocacola$Quarter),'1','0')
Q3 <- ifelse(grepl("Q3",Cocacola$Quarter),'1','0')
Q4 <- ifelse(grepl("Q4",Cocacola$Quarter),'1','0')
CocacolaData<-cbind(Cocacola,Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4)
View(CocacolaData)
colnames(CocacolaData)
CocacolaData["t"]<- 1:42
View(CocacolaData)
CocacolaData["log_Sales"]<-log(CocacolaData["Sales"])
CocacolaData["t_square"]<-CocacolaData["t"]*CocacolaData["t"]
attach(CocacolaData)
train<-CocacolaData[1:36,]
test<-CocacolaData[37:40,]
# LINEAR MODEL
linear_model<-lm(Sales~t,data=train)
summary(linear_model)
linear_pred<-data.frame(predict(linear_model,interval='predict',newdata =test))
View(linear_pred)
rmse_linear<-sqrt(mean((test$Sales-linear_pred$fit)^2,na.rm = T))
rmse_linear # 644.018 and Adjusted R2 Vaue - 79.22%
# Exponential
expo_model<-lm(log_Sales~t,data=train)
summary(expo_model)
expo_pred<-data.frame(predict(expo_model,interval='predict',newdata=test))
rmse_expo<-sqrt(mean((test$Sales-exp(expo_pred$fit))^2,na.rm = T))
rmse_expo # 524.7351 and Adjusted R2 - 80.17 %
Quad_model<-lm(Sales~t+t_square,data=train)
summary(Quad_model)
Quad_pred<-data.frame(predict(Quad_model,interval='predict',newdata=test))
rmse_Quad<-sqrt(mean((test$Sales-Quad_pred$fit)^2,na.rm=T))
rmse_Quad # 434.7185 and Adjusted R2 - 85.96 %
# Additive Seasonality
sea_add_model<-lm(Sales~Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4,data=train)
summary(sea_add_model)
sea_add_pred<-data.frame(predict(sea_add_model,newdata=test,interval='predict'))
rmse_sea_add<-sqrt(mean((test$Sales-sea_add_pred$fit)^2,na.rm = T))
rmse_sea_add # 1785.135
# Additive Seasonality with Linear
Add_sea_Linear_model<-lm(Sales~t+Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4,data=train)
summary(Add_sea_Linear_model)
Add_sea_Linear_pred<-data.frame(predict(Add_sea_Linear_model,interval='predict',newdata=test))
rmse_Add_sea_Linear<-sqrt(mean((test$Sales-Add_sea_Linear_pred$fit)^2,na.rm=T))
rmse_Add_sea_Linear # 534.6979 and Adjusted R2 - 87.61
Add_sea_Quad_model<-lm(Sales~t+t_square+Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4,data=train)
summary(Add_sea_Quad_model)
Add_sea_Quad_pred<-data.frame(predict(Add_sea_Quad_model,interval='predict',newdata=test))
rmse_Add_sea_Quad<-sqrt(mean((test$Sales-Add_sea_Quad_pred$fit)^2,na.rm=T))
rmse_Add_sea_Quad # 236.7075 and Adjusted R2 - 95.49%
# Multiplicative Seasonality
multi_sea_model<-lm(log_Sales~Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4,data = train)
summary(multi_sea_model)
multi_sea_pred<-data.frame(predict(multi_sea_model,newdata=test,interval='predict'))
rmse_multi_sea<-sqrt(mean((test$Sales-exp(multi_sea_pred$fit))^2,na.rm = T))
rmse_multi_sea # 1871.203
#Multiplicative Seasonality Linear trend
multi_add_sea_model<-lm(log_Sales~t+Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4,data = train)
summary(multi_add_sea_model)
multi_add_sea_pred<-data.frame(predict(multi_add_sea_model,newdata=test,interval='predict'))
rmse_multi_add_sea<-sqrt(mean((test$Sales-exp(multi_add_sea_pred$fit))^2,na.rm = T))
rmse_multi_add_sea # 335.1026 and Adjusted R2 - 89.86%
table_rmse<-data.frame(c("rmse_linear","rmse_expo","rmse_Quad","rmse_sea_add","rmse_Add_sea_Quad","rmse_multi_sea","rmse_multi_add_sea"),c(rmse_linear,rmse_expo,rmse_Quad,rmse_sea_add,rmse_Add_sea_Quad,rmse_multi_sea,rmse_multi_add_sea))
View(table_rmse)
colnames(table_rmse)<-c("model","RMSE")
View(table_rmse)
setwd("/Users/jaydippipariya/Downloads/Data Science/")
write.csv(table_rmse,file="table_rmse_coca.csv",col.names = F,row.names = F)
# Additive Seasonality with Quadratic trend has least RMSE value
new_model<-lm(Sales~t+t_square+Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4,data=CocacolaData)
new_model_pred<-data.frame(predict(new_model,newdata=CocacolaData,interval='predict'))
new_model_fin <- new_model$fitted.values
View(new_model_fin)
Quarter <- as.data.frame(CocacolaData$Quarter)
Final <- as.data.frame(cbind(Quarter,CocacolaData$Sales,new_model_fin))
colnames(Final) <-c("Quarter","Sales","New_Pred_Value")
plot(Final$Sales,main = "ActualGraph", xlab="Quarter", ylab="Sales(Actual)",col.axis="blue",type="o")
plot(Final$New_Pred_Value, main = "PredictedGraph", xlab="Quarter", ylab="Sales(Actual)",col.axis="Green",type="s")
View(Final)