Papers by Nicola Pontarollo
Routledge, Oct 26, 2016
The paper examines the effects of Structural Funds in Objective 1 regions in 2000–06 with a semi-... more The paper examines the effects of Structural Funds in Objective 1 regions in 2000–06 with a semi-parametric approach that accounts for possible non-linearities. The main findings are that funds for productive environment are positively correlated to GDP growth per capita mainly in lagging regions, while they do not have an effect on productivity. Funds for human capital, despite the low budgets, are strongly positive for both GDP per capita and GVA per worker growth in majority of regions, while Funds for infrastructure are effective in improving productivity growth only above the threshold of one per cent of regional GVA.
This chapter explores the Regional Economic Resilience Indicator (RERI) which has been developed ... more This chapter explores the Regional Economic Resilience Indicator (RERI) which has been developed as a composite indicator of the resilience capacity of a region. It accounts for elements of the “resilience life cycle†, categorizing them into four dimensions: introduction, growth, maturity, decline or renewal. These dimensions are then linked to the respective slow burning and shock wave processes. The investigation reveals that resilience capacities accumulated in the long-run may not be adequately managed and may even be lost in the short-run when the shock intervenes. Precisely, EU-13 countries have been able to keep the capacities accumulated during the slow burning and use them to recover after the crisis, while EU-15 experienced greater difficulties in dealing with the shock, deteriorating or not perfectly using the capacities accumulated.
This report studies population dynamics in Europe. Its purpose is threefold. First, the report of... more This report studies population dynamics in Europe. Its purpose is threefold. First, the report offers a literature review of the main drivers of population growth. Second, an empirical analysis is carried out in order to unveil the determinants of population growth in EU sub-regions (NUTS3 level) over the period 2000-2010. Spatial econometrics is employed to account for spatial dependence among neighbouring regions. Third, the existing evidence on the long-run relationship between economic and population growth is discussed, followed by an empirical assessment of the relationship between these two aggregates in Europe over the period 1960-2010. Time-series econometric tools are used for this analysis. The main findings of both the literature reviews and empirical analyses are discussed, along with their implications and future extensions.
CEPAL Review, 2020
This paper identifies the determinants of per capita gross value added (GVA) growth in Ecuador du... more This paper identifies the determinants of per capita gross value added (GVA) growth in Ecuador during the 2007-2015 period, using a spatial extension of the Mankiw, Romer and Weil (MRW) model. Because as a country Ecuador is characterized by deep territorial socioeconomic imbalances, estimates using classical techniques that measure average or "global" effects would not be as justifiable and would have limited political implications. Accordingly, this study uses a spatial filtering technique, which is a recent evolution of geographically weighted regression (GWR), to account for the spatial heterogeneity of the coefficients of a growth regression that explicitly considers both physical and human capital. The results show that Ecuadorian cantons have a wide range of convergence rates and that the effect of physical and human capital varies across space.
International Journal of Tourism Research, 2020
Domestic tourism represents a large share of the total tourism volume in Spain, but it is still a... more Domestic tourism represents a large share of the total tourism volume in Spain, but it is still an under-researched topic. This study focuses on the determinants of domestic flows in Spain at provincial level. The prior assumption is that domestic tourism demand may be affected by specific local conditions that previous studies, mostly based on more aggregate data, would hardly capture. A gravity model and various spatial econometric models are estimated assuming alternative spatial weighting matrices. Results suggest that income and relative prices affect tourism demand in Spanish provinces as well as weather, natural amenities, infrastructures, and recreational activities.
Conservation Biology, 2008
The traditional environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates that environmental degrad... more The traditional environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates that environmental degradation follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We tested the EKC hypothesis with bird populations in 5 different habitats as environmental quality indicators. Because birds are considered environmental goods, for them the EKC hypothesis would instead be associated with a U-shaped relationship between bird populations and GDP per capita. In keeping with the literature, we included other variables in the analysis-namely, human population density and time index variables (the latter variable captured the impact of persistent and exogenous climate and/or policy changes on bird populations over time). Using data from 9 Canadian provinces gathered over 37 years, we used a generalized least-squares regression for each bird habitat type, which accounted for the panel structure of the data, the cross-sectional dependence across provinces in the residuals, heteroskedasticity, and fixed-or randomeffect specifications of the models. We found evidence that supports the EKC hypothesis for 3 of the 5 bird population habitat types. In addition, the relationship between human population density and the different bird populations varied, which emphasizes the complex nature of the impact that human populations have on the environment. The relationship between the time-index variable and the different bird populations also varied, which indicates there are other persistent and significant influences on bird populations over time. Overall our EKC results were consistent with those found for threatened bird species, indicating that economic prosperity does indeed act to benefit some bird populations.
Investigaciones Regionales - Journal of Regional Research
This paper studies deprivation dynamics at the subnational level, introducing a Local Multidimens... more This paper studies deprivation dynamics at the subnational level, introducing a Local Multidimensional Poverty Index (LMPI), and focusing on multidimensional poverty in Ecuador and Uruguay between the last two available censuses, 1990–2010 and 1996–2011, respectively. As a first step, we construct the LMPI at the municipal level using microdata from both counties. Subsequently, we explore spatial and temporal dynamics through a set of tools such as the salter graph, Moran’s I, Moran scatterplot, and spatial transition matrix. The results indicate that compared to Ecuador, Uruguay was initially in a better position in terms of the LMPI. However, Ecuador achieved a generalized reduction of the LMPI during the period of analysis, reaching levels close to that of Uruguay. Nevertheless, spatial persistence in the LMPI is observed.
Supplemental Material, Table_A2 for Challenges and Opportunities to Regional Renewal in the Europ... more Supplemental Material, Table_A2 for Challenges and Opportunities to Regional Renewal in the European Union by Nicola Pontarollo and Carolina Serpieri in International Regional Science Review
Supplemental Material, Table_B3 for Challenges and Opportunities to Regional Renewal in the Europ... more Supplemental Material, Table_B3 for Challenges and Opportunities to Regional Renewal in the European Union by Nicola Pontarollo and Carolina Serpieri in International Regional Science Review
The paper investigates the coexistence of different organisational patterns of local productions ... more The paper investigates the coexistence of different organisational patterns of local productions and evaluate which local governance may be more appropriate in a globalized agro-food scenery. We analyze, through the spatial analysis tools and the use of suitable indicators at municipality level, some PDO/PGI products in two Italian regions, Veneto and Emilia Romagna, which adopted very different strategies. The regional institutions in Veneto preferred to individualize "from the top" the quality agro-food districts at provincial level. In Emilia Romagna, instead, the policy makers decided to recognize the initiatives from the "bottom", born through various types of agreements. The spatial analysis allows to select the most appropriate indicators in order to identify homogeneous local systems, reducing the complexity of the issues to be addressed in the definition of their geographic boundaries. The results of our analysis allow to evaluate these approaches, highl...
Innovations in Urban and Regional Systems, 2020
The Structural Funds (SF), are the most important strategic tool of the European Union (EU) for t... more The Structural Funds (SF), are the most important strategic tool of the European Union (EU) for the promotion of regional development. This chapter analyzes the effects of regionally targeted SF on labor productivity growth in 180 Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics, level 2 (NUTS2) regions from 1989 to 2006. The main contributions of this chapter to the debate on the effectiveness of Cohesion Policy consist of two aspects: the spatial econometric technique adopted and the analysis of the effectiveness of SF conditional to regional institutional quality. Regarding the first contribution, the chapter shows that EU regions, after controlling for spatial dependence, not only have multiple steady states, but also heterogeneous convergence rates. Regarding the second contribution, it is demonstrated that, while regional institutional quality is not significant per se, it positively affects the effectiveness of Objective 1 SF. Under a policy perspective, regions, to achieve a higher effectiveness of SF on productivity growth, should invest primarily in strengthening their institutional capacity.
SCIENZE REGIONALI, 2011
Lo studio analizza la convergenza della produttivita del lavoro in 259 regioni NUTS-2 dell'EU... more Lo studio analizza la convergenza della produttivita del lavoro in 259 regioni NUTS-2 dell'EU-27 tra il 1995 ed il 2007, confrontando le risposte del modello soloviano proposto da Mankiw et al. (1992) e di una sua estensione. Per le stime si e utilizzato un modello econometrico basato sui filtri spaziali con caratteristiche analoghe alla Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). Questa tecnica consente di stimare dei parametri di convergenza differenziati per ogni regione e di gestire sia la presenza di spillover spaziali, sia le differenze strutturali presenti nelle economie delle regioni. I risultati indicano che i tassi di convergenza globale stimati sono equiparabili a quelli ottenuti in molti dei precedenti studi, mentre i coefficienti locali aiutano ad interpretare in maniera piů realistica i percorsi di crescita delle regioni.
Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2018
Ecuador is a developing country characterized by severe territorial disparities reflected in a he... more Ecuador is a developing country characterized by severe territorial disparities reflected in a heterogeneous economic and social geography that risk to undermine a future balanced development. The paper analyses for the first time the impact of main economic sectors on sub-national growth process in the context of the “Changing Productive Matrix” policy objective, which aims to achieve productive diversification based on adding value through de-concentration of production from the existing poles to the whole territory. The estimation is performed using new data provided by Central Bank of Ecuador for the period 2007-2014 through a panel econometric technique. The results prove that, despite the strategy aimed at changing the productive matrix pushed by the government, this process is far to be completed. In particular, the country is too much focused on low productive sectors which depress economic growth and the manufacture and financial services sectors are too much concentrated i...
This paper provides an investigation of the effectiveness of the main measures applied in Rural D... more This paper provides an investigation of the effectiveness of the main measures applied in Rural Development Programs, in particular those for farm structure intervention, at regional/national level on the basis of cluster analysis with spatial econometric tools. The main results are: (i) the identification in the enlarged Union of the main rural systems, (ii) the suggestion of some indications for the rural policies after 2013, in particular for the farm structures intervention.
Data on building permits over population, per capita GVA, population density and share of market ... more Data on building permits over population, per capita GVA, population density and share of market sector
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2016
In European Parliament elections turnout rates, traditionally lower than in national parliamentar... more In European Parliament elections turnout rates, traditionally lower than in national parliamentary elections, decrease from one elections to the next, and show strong variations within and between countries. What explains this decline? Why are there such big differences between and within the EU member countries? This paper investigates these problems by analyzing the last four EP elections in the EU-13, for 156 regions. We first study the spatial features of turnout and subsequently test a Hierarchical Linear Model to assess the impact of some socioeconomic , institutional and political factors on voter turnout. The results confirm the spatial dependence of data and indicate a significant role of compulsory voting, domestic political cleavages, and uncertainty on the labor market. No evidence is found that European financial transfers, GDP per capita or unemployment influence turnout. Finally, the oldest segment of population seems more prone to vote than the youngest part.
International Regional Science Review, 2020
The strength of the 2008 financial and economic crisis and the resulting degree of resilience wer... more The strength of the 2008 financial and economic crisis and the resulting degree of resilience were heterogeneous among and within the European Union countries. Challenges and opportunities driven by regional-specific differences determined the ability to overshoot the precrisis levels of growth. Focusing upon Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics 2 (NUTS 2) European regions, we explore a novel conceptual framework related to regional economic resilience, namely the renewal capacity. Precisely, we concentrate on the capacity of regional economies to “renew” their growth paths in the labor market in the aftermath of the recent global crisis. We find some well-identified spatial patterns of regional employment renewal and we identify a set of territorial assets that allow regions to bounce back faster and more comprehensively than others to the economic downturn. Furthermore, there are significant differences between the drivers of the regional renewal of Old and New Member ...
Revista de la CEPAL, 2020
En este documento se identifican los determinantes del crecimiento del valor agregado bruto (VAB)... more En este documento se identifican los determinantes del crecimiento del valor agregado bruto (VAB) per cápita en el Ecuador durante el período 2007-2015, utilizando una extensión espacial del modelo de Mankiw, Romer y Weil (MRW). Debido a que el Ecuador es un país caracterizado por profundos desequilibrios socioeconómicos a nivel de los territorios, las estimaciones con técnicas clásicas que miden efectos medios o "globales" no serían tan justificables y tendrían escasas implicaciones políticas. En consecuencia, en el presente artículo se utiliza la técnica de filtrado espacial, que es una evolución reciente de la regresión geográficamente ponderada (GWR), para tomar en cuenta la heterogeneidad espacial de los coeficientes de una regresión de crecimiento que considera explícitamente tanto el capital físico como humano. Los resultados muestran que los cantones ecuatorianos tienen una amplia gama de tasas de convergencia y que el efecto del capital físico y humano varía en el espacio. Palabras clave Crecimiento económico, análisis económico, desarrollo regional, economía regional, modelos econométricos, indicadores del desarrollo, Ecuador Clasificación JEL
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Papers by Nicola Pontarollo