United States Senate election in Montana, 2018

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U.S. Senate, Montana
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
Green primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 12, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Jon Tester (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Montana
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Montana
U.S. Senate • At-large
Montana elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

U.S. Sen. Jon Tester (D) defeated Montana State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) and land surveyor Rick Breckenridge (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent Montana in the United States Senate.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Trump won Montana by 20 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election. That same year, incumbent Gov. Steve Bullock (D) won re-election by 3.8 percentage points. The last U.S. Senate election was in 2014 when U.S. Rep. Steve Daines (R) defeated Amanda Curtis (D) by 18 percentage points. Tester was first elected in 2006. In his 2012 re-election, the Libertarian candidate received 6.6 percent of the vote, nearly double the 3.7 percentage point margin separating Tester and Republican Denny Rehberg.

Democratic Party Click here to read more about the Democratic Party primary election.
Republican Party Click here to read more about the Republican Party primary election.

Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Montana

Incumbent Jon Tester defeated Matt Rosendale and Rick Breckenridge in the general election for U.S. Senate Montana on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jon Tester
Jon Tester (D)
 
50.3
 
253,876
Image of Matt Rosendale
Matt Rosendale (R)
 
46.8
 
235,963
Image of Rick Breckenridge
Rick Breckenridge (L)
 
2.9
 
14,545

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 504,384
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Montana

Incumbent Jon Tester advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jon Tester
Jon Tester
 
100.0
 
114,948

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 114,948
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Montana

Matt Rosendale defeated Russell C. Fagg, Troy Downing, and Albert Olszewski in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Matt Rosendale
Matt Rosendale
 
33.8
 
51,859
Image of Russell C. Fagg
Russell C. Fagg
 
28.3
 
43,465
Image of Troy Downing
Troy Downing
 
19.1
 
29,341
Image of Albert Olszewski
Albert Olszewski
 
18.7
 
28,681

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 153,346
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Green primary election

Green primary for U.S. Senate Montana

Steve Kelly defeated Timothy Adams in the Green primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Steve Kelly
Steve Kelly
 
61.2
 
971
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Timothy Adams
 
38.8
 
615

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 1,586
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Jon Tester, senior U.S. senator from Montana
Jon Tester.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. Senate (assumed office: 2007), Montana State Senate (1999-2006), Big Sandy School Board (1983-1992)

Biography: Tester received his B.S. in music from the University of Great Falls. He has worked as a music teacher and managed his family's farm.[3]

Key messages
  • Tester said he was an authentic Montanan, pointing to his farm in Big Sandy and his hand injury from a childhood meat grinder accident.[4] Tester said he sometimes opposed the Democratic Party to protect the state's interests and would protect residents from outsiders threatening the Montana way of life.[5]
  • Tester said he held Washington, D.C. accountable to his constituents by promoting transparency and fighting against government waste, special interests, and unnecessary bureaucracy.[5]
  • Tester highlighted his work with President Donald Trump on veterans issues, which he said was his top legislative priority.[5]



Matt Rosendale, state auditor of Montana
Matt Rosendale 1.PNG

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: No

Political office: State Auditor (assumed office: 2017), Montana State Senate (2012-2016), Montana House of Representatives (2010-2012)

Biography: Rosendale attended Chesapeake College.[6] He has worked as a real estate professional in Maryland and as a rancher in Montana.[7]

Key messages
  • Rosendale said he was a strong supporter of President Donald Trump and would "stand with President Trump to advance his agenda and Put Montana First Again."[8]
  • Rosendale said incumbent Jon Tester lost touch with the state during his time in Washington, D.C. He criticized Tester for voting against President Trump's immigration and tax policies, releasing misconduct allegations against Secretary of Veterans Affairs nominee Ronny Jackson, and opposing Supreme Court nominees Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh.[9]
  • Rosendale said he adopted the Montana lifestyle through ranching and that he embraced what he said were the Montana values of "faith, family and community."[10]



Rick Breckenridge, land surveyor
Rick Breckenridge.jpg

Campaign website Facebook

Party: Libertarian

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Breckenridge's professional experience includes working as a professional land surveyor. Breckenridge ran as the Libertarian nominee for Montana's U.S. House seat in 2016.[11]

Key messages
  • Breckendridge described himself as a "champion of personal rights." His campaign slogan was "Whatever you ask the government to do for you, they can do to you.”[11]




Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
United States Senate election in Montana, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Jon Tester (D) Matt Rosendale (R)Other/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
University of Montana, Big Sky
(October 10-18, 2018)		N/A 49%39%12%+/-4.33533
Montana State University, Billings
(October 8-13, 2018)		N/A 47%38%15%+/-4.5471
Public Policy Polling
(September 28, 2018)		Protect Our Care 49%45%6%+/-4.0594
Axis Research
(September 17-19, 2018)		National Republican Senatorial Committee 44%44%12%+/-4.5480
Beneson Strategy Group
(September 6-16, 2018)		AARP 50%43%7%+/-3.0950
YouGov
(September 10- 14, 2018)		CBS News 47%45%8%+/-5.2543
WPA Intelligence
(August 20- 22, 2018)		National Republican Senatorial Committee 45%47%8%+/-4.0600
Remington Research
(July 8 - 10, 2018)		N/A 49%46%5%+/-2.02,581
AVERAGES 47.5% 43.38% 9.13% +/-3.94 844
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

PredictIt Prices

This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Jon Tester Democratic Party $21,242,980 $20,822,247 $480,574 As of December 31, 2018
Matt Rosendale Republican Party $5,994,023 $5,924,058 $76,178 As of December 31, 2018
Rick Breckenridge Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[12][13][14]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • America First Action (AFA)
    • AFA announced $1.5 million in spending on behalf of Rosendale on September 26.[15]
    • AFA launched a $344,000 television ad campaign that criticized Jon Tester for releasing misconduct allegations against Ronny Jackson on May 1.[16]
  • The American Bankers Association announced that it would begin airing pro-Tester ads as part of a six-figure buy on April 25. According to the group's president, Rob Nichols, the group supported Tester because he helped pass a banking deregulation bill that repealed parts of the 2010 Dodd-Frank banking act.[17]
  • Americas PAC disclosed about $330,000 in spending to support Matt Rosendale on July 5.[19]
  • The Club for Growth spent about $400,000 opposing Jon Tester on August 18.[20]Cite error: Closing </ref> missing for <ref> tag
  • End Citizens United announced July 26 it would spent $2 million supporting Jon Tester with $1.5 million on TV ads, $300,000 on digital ads, and $200,000 on direct mail.[21]
  • The Credit Union National Association announced it would spend $250,000 supporting Tester on October 17.[23]
  • The Protect Freedom PAC disclosed $250,000 opposing Tester on October 11.
  • Senate Majority PAC
    • Spent $600,000 on an ad opposing Matt Rosendale on June 14.[30]
    • Began a $400,000 statewide TV ad campaign in support of Tester on April 24.[30]
  • The Senate Reform Fund spent about $385,000 opposing Jon Tester on August 13.[31]
  • The United Association of Plumbers disclosed $500,000 in spending to support Jon Tester on October 30.
  • VoteVets
    • VoteVets and Majority Forward announced an $850,000 television ad campaign opposing Matt Rosendale on October 9.[32]
    • The group began a $200,000 television ad campaign to support Jon Tester on May 4.[30]

Race ratings

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[33]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[34][35][36]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Montana, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


Noteworthy general election endorsements
Endorsement Rosendale (R) Tester (D)
Individuals
President Donald Trump (R)[37] ✔
Vice President Mike Pence (R)[38] ✔
Donald Trump Jr.[39] ✔
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D)[40][41] ✔
Organizations
National Rifle Association[42] ✔
National Border Patrol Council[43] ✔
Patagonia[44] ✔

Timeline

  • November 3, 2018: President Donald Trump (R) campaigned for Rosendale in Bozeman.[60]
  • October 29, 2018: The United Association of Plumbers disclosed $500,000 in spending to support Jon Tester.
  • October 29, 2018: A University of Montana, Big Sky, poll found Tester with 49 percent and Rosendale with 39 percent. The margin of error was 4.33 percentage points.
  • October 24, 2018: A Montana State University, Billings, poll showed Tester with 47 percent and Rosendale with 38 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percentage points.
  • October 23, 2018: The Senate Leadership Fund launched a $1.5 million ad campaign opposing Tester.
  • October 18, 2018: President Trump held a rally for Rosendale in Missoula.[61]
  • October 16, 2018: VoteVets and Majority Forward announced an $850,000 television ad campaign opposing Matt Rosendale.
  • October 13, 2018: The candidates met in a debate hosted by MTN News and Yellowstone Public Radio. Read more below.
  • October 11, 2018: The Protect Freedom PAC disclosed $250,000 opposing Tester.
  • October 10, 2018: The Senate Leadership Fund booked $1 million in ads for the week of October 23.[28]
  • October 2, 2018: Vice President Mike Pence (R) campaigned with Matt Rosendale in Bozeman.[38]
  • September 29, 2018: The candidates met in a debate hosted by Montana PBS. Read more below.
  • September 28, 2018: A Public Policy Polling survey sponsored by Protect Our Care found Tester leading Rosendale 49-45. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.
  • September 27, 2018: The American Hospital Association disclosed $350,000 in spending supporting Jon Tester.
  • September 26, 2018: America First Action announced $1.5 million in spending on behalf of Rosendale.
  • September 26, 2018: Donald Trump Jr. held a fundraiser to support Matt Rosendale.[39]
  • September 20, 2018: An Axis Research poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee found Tester and Rosendale tied 44-44. The margin of error was 4.5 percentage points.
  • September 16, 2018: A CBS News/YouGov poll found Tester leading Rosendale 47-45. The margin of error was 5.2 percentage points.
  • September 12, 2018: The National Education Association launched a $1 million spending campaign opposing Matt Rosendale.
  • September 6, 2018: The National Republican Senatorial Committee disclosed about $500,000 in spending opposing Jon Tester.
  • September 6, 2018: The National Rifle Association launched a $400,000 negative ad campaign against Jon Tester.
  • September 6, 2018: President Donald Trump (R) held a rally for Matt Rosendale in Billings.[62]
  • August 28, 2018: A poll from WPA Intelligence sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee found Matt Rosendale leading Jon Tester 47-45.
  • August 21, 2018: The Montana Supreme Court upheld Judge James Reynolds' ruling that removed Green Party candidate Steve Kelly from the general election ballot.
  • August 18, 2018: The Club for Growth spent about $400,000 opposing Jon Tester.[20]Cite error: Closing </ref> missing for <ref> tag
  • August 13, 2018: The Senate Reform Fund spent about $385,000 opposing Jon Tester.[31]
  • July 26, 2018: End Citizens United announced it would spent $2 million supporting Jon Tester with $1.5 million on TV ads, $300,000 on digital ads, and $200,000 on direct mail.[21]
  • July 24, 2018: Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for Matt Rosendale.
  • July 10, 2018: A poll from Remington Research found Jon Tester leading Matt Rosendale 49-46.
  • July 9, 2018: Helena District Court Judge James Reynolds ruled that the Green Party had not collected enough signatures for their candidate, Steve Kelly to appear on the general election ballot.
  • July 9, 2018: The League of Conservation Voters launched a $990,000 ad campaign opposing Matt Rosendale.[22]
  • July 5, 2018: Americas PAC disclosed about $330,000 in spending to support Matt Rosendale.[19]
  • July 5, 2018: Donald Trump campaigned for Matt Rosendale in Great Falls, Montana.
  • June 30, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures from the second quarter of 2018 showed that Jon Tester had raised about $11.8 million and had about $6.1 million in cash on hand, while Matt Rosendale had raised more than $2 million and had about $640,000 in cash on hand.
  • June 18, 2018: The Montana Chamber of Commerce declined to endorse either candidate.[63]
  • June 17, 2018: Matt Rosendale declined to participate in a debate at the Montana Broadcasters Association convention, saying it was scheduled on Father's Day and that Libertarian and Green Party candidates had not been invited.[64]
  • June 14, 2018: The Senate Majority PAC spent $600,000 on an ad opposing Matt Rosendale.
  • June 12, 2018: Donald Trump Jr. announced he would campaign for Matt Rosendale.
  • June 6, 2018: Russ Fagg endorsed Matt Rosendale after losing the Republican primary to him.
  • June 5, 2018: Matt Rosendale won the Republican primary.

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Jon Tester

Support

"Junk Insurance," Tester campaign ad released October 29, 2018
"UATV1803H," United Association of Plumbers campaign ad released October 26, 2018
"Character," Tester campaign ad released October 18, 2018
"Montana Senate," CUNA ad released October 15, 2018
"Vets Have Jon's Back," released October 14, 2018
"Katie Over Cancer," released October 5, 2018
"Driving," released October 1, 2018
"Value The Truth," released September 17, 2018
"Spent Grain," released September 12, 2018
"Trump Praise," released September 5, 2018
"Open Contracts," released August 10, 2018
"Every Year," released July 16, 2018
"Not For Sale," released June 28, 2018
"Jon's Got Our Back," released May 8, 2018
"Bob," released May 23, 2018
"13 Bills," released March 12, 2018
"Fighting For Our Veterans," released March 26, 2018
"Wired to Fight," released March 28, 2018
"Joel," Vote Vets ad released May 4, 2018
"Montana Senate ad," American Bankers Association ad released April 24, 2018
"These Guys," Senate Majority PAC ad released March 23, 2018

Oppose

"Pence MT," NRSC ad, released October 25, 2018
"Sided," Senate Leadership Fund ad, released October 23, 2018
"Deserve a Senator," NRSC ad, released October 16, 2018
"Two Faced Liberal," Protect Freedom PAC ad, released October 11, 2018
"Tell Senator Jon Tester: Stand Against S.1804," U.S. Chamber of Commerce ad, released October 10, 2018
"Confront," Rosendale ad, released October 6, 2018
"Vote Against Beltway Jon Tester," America First Action ad, released October 6, 2018
"Take His Keys," Club For Growth ad, released October 5, 2018
"Smear," Rosendale ad, released October 2, 2018
"Makeup," Restoration PAC ad, released October 1, 2018
"Jon Tester Hasn't Delivered For Veterans," CVA Action ad, released September 27, 2018
"Swamp," Club for Growth ad released September 26, 2018
"In Common," National Republican Senatorial Committee ad released September 22, 2018
"Lumber, " Rosendale ad released September 13, 2018
"Pence, " NRSC ad released September 8, 2018
"Own Words, " released September 7, 2018
"2nd Amendment, " released September 4, 2018
"Defend Freedom. Defeat Two-Faced Tester!" NRA ad released September 6, 2018
"Missing, " Club for Growth ad released September 5, 2018
"Choice," released August 21, 2018
"Tester Test," NRSC ad released August 14, 2018
"Your Word Matters," Club for Growth ad released August 1, 2018
"Say What You Mean," Club for Growth ad released July 20, 2018
"Cosmopolitan Castle," Rosendale ad released July 24, 2018
"Jon Tester's Lies," Senate Reform Fund released July 10, 2018
"Stepped in it," Rosendale ad released May 13, 2018
"Disgrace," Senate Leadership Fund ad released May 3, 2018
"Disgrace," National Republican Senatorial Committee ad released May 1, 2018
"Disgraceful," America First Action ad released May 1, 2018
"Tell Sen. Tester Support Better Healthcare at Lower Costs," Americans for Prosperity ad released April 17, 2018
"Let Em Have it," Senate Leadership Fund ad released April 9, 2018
"Montana- Every Day," Restoration PAC ad released March 23, 2018

Republican Party Matt Rosendale

Support

"Neighbors," Rosendale campaign ad released October 12, 2018
"Matt Rosendale Helped Montana Families," Americans for Prosperity ad released August 29, 2018
"Montana Fighter," released August 7, 2018
"Get Tough," released June 12, 2018

Oppose

"Rubber Stamp Rosendale," House Majority PAC ad October 31, 2018
"Deserve," Tester campaign ad October 17, 2018
"Charlie," Majority Forward ad released October 16, 2018
"Scandals," Majority Forward ad released October 5, 2018
"Eagles Crossing," Tester ad released September 30, 2018
"Hat," Majority Forward ad released September 25, 2018
"I'm A Rancher," Tester ad released September 12, 2018
"Captain," End Citizens United ad released August 22, 2018
"Rosy," End Citizens United ad released July 31, 2018
"Royalties," League of Conservation Voters ad released July 6, 2018
"Dress Up," Senate Majority PAC ad released June 14, 2018
"Montanans Can't Trust Matt Rosendale," American Bridge 21st Century ad released June 6, 2018

Tester's campaign released this ad opposing Rosendale in June 2018.

Tester's campaign released this ad opposing Rosendale in July 2018.

The Montana Democratic Party released this digital ad opposing Rosendale in March 2018.

Campaign strategies and tactics

Tester's ideological leaning

After Tester released a campaign ad in March 2018 touting his work with President Donald Trump on several pieces of legislation related to veterans, first responders, and military personnel, David Parker, a political science professor at Montana State University, commented on Tester's appeal to independent voters. He said that Tester tried to work on issues with broad appeal, which sometimes angered Democrats in the progressive wing of the party. "A number of progressives have always grumbled about Tester," Parker said. "He's a centrist Democrat. That's who he is and how he wins races."[66]

President's Trump opposition to Tester

President Donald Trump began openly opposing Tester in April 2018. Trump said that Tester fabricated professional misconduct allegations against White House physician and Navy rear admiral Ronny Jackson, Trump's nominee to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs after the departure of Secretary David Shulkin.

Jackson withdrew from the nomination process on April 26 after the Democratic staff on the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee, where Tester served as ranking member, released a summary of allegations against Jackson, including charges that he wrecked a government vehicle while driving intoxicated and had given medication to White House staffers without requiring prescriptions. Jackson denied the allegations but said he would withdraw so that Trump could move forward with filling the position.[67]

In his position as the top Democrat on the committee, Tester and his staff interviewed over two dozen persons who previously worked with Jackson and compiled a list of allegations against him. Tester said he did not seek out the allegations and the number of accusers coming forward convinced him to make the charges public.

After Jackson's withdrawal, several Republican senators told Politico that Tester angered Trump by bringing forth the allegations against Jackson.

“If he thinks it’s my job to sweep his stuff under the table and ignore our military folks, he’s wrong. If he thinks I should not be sticking up for veterans, he’s wrong,” Tester told Politico April 26. “I look forward to working with President Trump. I’ve worked with him many times in the past, but we disagree.”[68]

Trump sent out the following tweets on April 28, which included a call for Tester to resign:

Also on April 28, Trump criticized Tester at a rally in Michigan and said, “I know things about Tester that I could say, too. And if I said them, he’d never be elected again.”[16]

Tester did not respond directly to Trump's tweets, but his office released a statement that said, “It’s my duty to make sure Montana veterans get what they need and have earned, and I’ll never stop fighting for them as their Senator.” The statement also mentioned that Trump and Tester worked together before on legislation.[69]

Ties to Montana

Tester and Rosendale each claimed that the other did not have strong ties to the state of Montana or did represent the state's values.

Tester criticized Rosendale for being from Maryland, calling him "Maryland Matt," and saying Rosendale did not understand Montana values like public land ownership.[70] In a September 2018 ad, Tester said Rosendale falsely claimed to be rancher and was instead an East Coast real estate developer.

Rosendale and his allies criticized Tester for having a home in Washington, D.C. and for taking money from lobbyists and special interest groups.[71] An October 2018 ad from America First Action said Tester was "a member of the Beltway Elite" and sided with Democrats over Montanans.

Noteworthy events

Brett Kavanaugh confirmation vote

See also: Supreme Court vacancy, 2018: An overview

On October 6, 2018, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Fifty Senators voted to confirm Kavanaugh's nomination, 48 voted against, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voted present. A simple majority was required to confirm Kavanaugh.[72]

Tester voted against Kavanaugh. When announcing his opposition on September 28, Tester said, "I have concerns that Judge Kavanaugh defended the Patriot Act instead of Montanans' privacy. I have concerns about his support for more dark money in politics. I have concerns about who he believes is in charge of making personal health decisions. And I have deep concerns about the allegations of sexual assault against Judge Kavanaugh."[73]

Rosendale said he would have voted for Kavanaugh. He said, “There’s a man that has a commendable record. He should be serving on the bench and absolutely I would vote for him.”[74]

Green Party lawsuit

On April 2, the Montana Democratic Party filed a lawsuit in Lewis and Clark County District Court claiming that the state Green Party did not collect enough valid signatures to appear on the ballot. The lawsuit argued that Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (R) incorrectly certified 180 signature petitions. The lawsuit asked for an injunction to remove the party from the June 5 primary. Six Green Party candidates qualified for the ballot in Montana. Two candidates filed for the U.S. Senate, one for the U.S. House, and three candidates in the state legislature.[75] The last time Green Party candidates appeared on the ballot for statewide races was in 2002 for U.S. Senate and 2004 for governor.[76]

Green Party officials said that Democrats were trying to remove them from the ballot because their presence might take votes away from Tester in the general election. "I guess I'm flattered that the Democratic Party thinks we're such a threat, while at the same time I'm saddened that they would try to get us off the ballot," Green Party organizer Dani Green said. "They should want more participation by voters, not less."[77]

Montana Democrats said that Republicans were behind the Green Party's signature gathering. “The evidence suggests that the Republican-linked Nevada firm, Advanced Micro Targeting, which has a history of shoddy and unethical petition-gathering practices, was behind this effort,” Democratic Party Executive Director Nancy Keenan said.[78]

In response to allegations that they were supporting the Green Party candidate in order to divide the Democratic electorate, Republicans claimed that Tester did the same thing in his last two elections by helping fund a Libertarian candidate. In both elections, the number of votes cast for the Libertarian candidate was greater than the margin between Tester and his Republican challenger.[79]

Arguments in the lawsuit began April 24 in front of Judge Kathy Seeley, who said she was unlikely to render a decision ahead of the June 5 primary.[80]

Steve Kelly won the Green Party primary on June 5.

On July 9, Helena District Court Judge James P. Reynolds, who replaced Judge Seeley on the case, invalidated a number of signatures that Green Party supporters filed, putting them below the 5,000 petition signatures needed for Kelly to make the ballot.[76]

“The Montana Democratic Party’s deep pocketed effort to suppress the vote in Montana has, for the moment, succeeded,” said party spokeswoman Danielle Breck. “The [Montana Green Party], however, understands that it is not only our right, but also our duty, as citizens to do everything we can to stand up against such efforts.”[76]

Keenan, the Democratic Party director, said the ruling was a victory “against the tactics of out-of-state Republican dark money groups that are blatantly trying to interfere in Montana’s democracy.”[76]

On July 11, Secretary of State Stapleton said he would appeal the ruling.[81]

Stapleton filed the appeal on July 18. He asked Reynolds to suspend his ruling temporarily, arguing that the Montana Supreme Court could possibly overturn Reynolds after the August 23 deadline for the certification of the general election ballot, which would require new ballots with the Green Party candidate to be printed. Conversely, he argued that the state could print the ballots with the Green Party candidate and decline to count Green Party votes if the state Supreme Court upheld Reynolds' ruling.[82]

On August 21, the Montana Supreme Court upheld Reynolds' ruling.[83]

Debates and forums

Oct. 13 MTN News and Yellowstone Public Radio debate

On October 13, Tester, Rosendale, and Breckenridge met in a debate hosted by MTN News and Yellowstone Public Radio. The topics they discussed included international trade, the Endangered Species Act, and insurance policies.

Read this roundup of the debate from Montana Public Radio.

"Montana Television Network debate," October 13, 2018

Sept. 29 Montana PBS debate

On September 29, Tester and Rosendale met in a debate hosted by Montana PBS. The topics they discussed included Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court, healthcare policy, and each candidate's ties to the state of Montana.

Read this roundup of the debate from Montana Public Radio.

"Montana PBS Senate debate," September 29, 2018

Campaign themes

Democratic Party Jon Tester

Tester’s campaign website stated the following:

“

SERVING OUR VETERANS
Montana is home to nearly 100,000 veterans. There is a strong tradition of service in our state, and Jon knows that one of his most important duties in the Senate is to make sure this nation lives up to the promises made to each and every one of our veterans.

Jon talks directly to Montana’s heroes, and takes their thoughts and concerns with him to Washington – and gets them real results.

As the Ranking Member of the Veterans’ Affairs Committee, Jon has fought relentlessly to hold the VA accountable for its failures. He authored and got signed into law the VA Accountability and Whistleblower Protection Act, a landmark bill making it easier for the VA to fire and hold accountable bad employees.

He demanded an investigation into wait times for veterans seeking care through VA Montana, and then successfully pressured VA leadership to send an expert team to address the issue. And when the VA didn’t pay $230,000 in backlogged claims to the Billings Mental Health Center, Tester fought back and got them to pay up.

And Robert Wilkie, the next Secretary of the VA, was recently sworn in with Jon’s strong support. Jon will work with Secretary Wilkie to hold the VA accountable to Montana’s veterans.

FIXING CHOICE

Jon is working tirelessly to fix the broken VA Choice program. Jon’s bipartisan VA MISSION Act, signed into law by President Trump, scraps the Choice program and replaces it with a more streamlined system focused on getting veterans care in their communities. Jon brought the concerns of Montana veterans directly to President Trump and his Administration, and worked with Democrats and Republicans to get this legislation signed into law.

STAFFING

Jon knows that being able to hire and retain doctors, nurses, and other medical professionals is key to getting our veterans the quality care they’ve earned, and he’s battled relentlessly to ensure the VA has the tools to do so.

He led negotiations on a bipartisan bill that included provisions he authored expanding the VA’s ability to more quickly hire for positions with a severe shortage of candidates and requiring the VA to create a database of every critical or difficult to fill vacancy, which was signed into law.

Jon has also fought tirelessly to attract medical professionals to the VA, successfully pushing to increase the VA’s limit on student loan debt repayments, creating a pilot program to repay student loans for mental health professionals, and backing a proposed VA psychiatric residency program in Montana.

INCREASED ACCESS

Jon understands that in a rural state like Montana, access to quality care is critical. That’s why he’s been relentless in his push for more VA facilities, helping secure nine new veterans clinics, vet centers, or telehealth clinics across Montana, as well as two veterans clinic expansions in Billings and Missoula. Jon has fought tirelessly to ensure veteran drug treatment courts in Great Falls, Billings, Bozeman, and Missoula get the resources they need, and to bolster programs across Montana to assist homeless veterans and their families. And after years of battling bureaucrats, Jon secured funding for a Southwest Veterans Home in Butte. Jon will continue to advocate on behalf of Montana veterans for increased access to care.

ROSENDALE’S FAILED RECORD

As a state legislator, Matt Rosendale repeatedly voted against Montana’s veterans. Rosendale’s voted against the Southwest Montana veterans home, against funding for the Columbia Falls veterans home, against scholarships for Montana Purple Heart recipients, and against home loan benefits for Montana veterans and Gold Star families. Rosendale’s record is crystal clear: he works against Montana’s veterans and is only looking out for himself.

INVESTING IN PUBLIC EDUCATION
As a former teacher, and school board member, Jon knows first-hand how important public education is to Montana. Jon knows that greater access to higher education improves lives and boosts Montana’s economy. That’s why he’s fought tirelessly to protect local control of Montana’s schools, to expand educational and job training opportunities for all Montanans, and for the resources rural schools need to compete.

From Head Start to post-secondary education, Jon has been an advocate for Montana’s students. And when Washington bureaucrats got in his way, he let them have it.

Jon has stood up for Montana against Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos. When DeVos threatened the University of Montana’s TRiO program over a formatting error, Jon held her feet to the fire and delivered for Montana students. And Jon is battling DeVos at every turn as she tries to privatize our public schools. Jon knows voucherizing schools might work in downtown Chicago, but it won’t work in Chinook.

Jon’s fought to make a college degree attainable for any Montanan who is ready and willing to do the work. He’s pushed for year-round Pell grants in order to help more Montanans finish college on time and without mountains of debt. And he’s worked tirelessly to ensure our veterans get full access to their G.I. Bill benefits.

Jon’s goal is to expand education opportunities for all Montanans, including those who don’t want or need a college degree. He’s hosted blue-collar jobs roundtables across the state and worked with community colleges to deliver vocational training for Montanans.

Jon wants all Montanans to have access to good-paying jobs and education is critically important to achieving that goal.

Like out-of-touch billionaire Betsy DeVos, Matt Rosendale doesn’t get it. He supports vouchers and charter schools, which pull federal funding away from public schools, but do not have the same accountability. He’s even voted against bipartisan education funding at the state level, including to improve school infrastructure. But why should we expect a developer from Maryland to be looking out for Montana’s children?

He’s not looking out for Montana’s students – he’s following the Koch Brothers’ lead. He’s called for ending federal funding for higher education. In the legislature, he voted against scholarships for Montana veterans and engineering students, and voted against funding critical infrastructure in the state university system.

KEEPING PUBLIC LANDS IN PUBLIC HANDS
Jon is relentlessly defending our public lands. In Montana, hunting, fishing, and our outdoor heritage isn’t just a way-of-life, it’s an economic driver. Montana’s outdoor economy accounts for more than $7 billion into our economy.

Jon has consistently opposed transferring federal lands to the state and is a champion of public access in the United States Senate.

Jon’s relentless advocacy for Made-in-Montana public lands legislation shows he has Montana’s back. After in-person town hall meetings, listening sessions, and roundtables across the state Jon has heard Montanans loud and clear: keep our public lands in public hands.

Jon worked across the aisle to pass Made-in-Montana legislation to protect the North Fork of the Flathead and over 275,000 acres on the Rocky Mountain Front. And Jon’s Yellowstone Gateway Protection Act would permanently protect the Paradise Valley from mining at the gateway to Yellowstone National Park. Jon believes there are some places you just don’t mine, and the doorstep of Yellowstone is one of them.

He’s also been a champion of collaborative legislation to protect lands for the next generation. Jon’s Blackfoot Clearwater Stewardship Act was crafted over the years with local stakeholders from sportsmen to small business owners to the timber industry to add 79,000 acres of wilderness while accommodating recreational and commercial uses.

And just this year, President Trump signed Jon’s bill to protect East Rosebud Creek by designating it “wild and scenic.” Jon worked with the entire Montana delegation to get the bill to the President’s desk.

Out-of-state special interests are attacking Montana’s public lands, but Jon will always be there defending them. He’s a relentless advocate for public access to public lands, ensuring hunting, fishing, and hiking opportunities for generations to come.

Matt Rosendale is no friend to our public lands – which is no surprise since he spent two decades as a developer on the Eastern Shore in Maryland. Then he moved to Montana, bought a $2 million ranch and started calling himself a rancher, even though he owns no cattle. He talks a big game about public lands access for Montanans, but just a couple years ago, he wanted to transfer federal public lands to the state, which would explode Montana’s budget and force the sale of lands to private owners, closing off access to sportsmen and devastating Montana’s outdoor economy. And on the Land Board, when he had the chance to vote to protect access for sportsmen in Southwest Montana and to open up thousands of acres to public access in Eastern Montana – he voted no. As a developer, Rosendale bought farmland in Maryland and Montana, and built neighborhoods on it.

CREATING GOOD JOBS
One of Jon’s top priorities in the Senate is to help create jobs for Montanans, and to retain the ones we already have.

In 2017, Jon announced his plan to #EmployMT, a comprehensive strategy to create high-paying jobs, rebuild our infrastructure, invest in the workforce, and spur innovation in Montana.

Jon, a small business owner himself, knows that keeping small businesses growing is the key to a thriving economy, and that responsibly investing in public education and job training programs will help connect qualified workers with jobs in Montana.

Jon believes that a critical step toward keeping jobs in Montana is keeping jobs here in America, which is why Jon has voted to end tax incentives that make it easier for corporations to send jobs overseas.

Jon also supports a responsibly-built Keystone XL Pipeline, because he knows responsible energy development will not only increase energy security and create jobs, but it will also spur small businesses and new opportunities. It’s also why he believes the pipeline should be built with American steel.

KEEPING WASHINGTON ACCOUNTABLE
Montanans know that transparency and accountability are essential in our government. Often saying that “a little sunshine in government is always a good thing,” Jon has carried that attitude with him to Washington. The transparency and ethics standards he enforces in his offices are unmatched in Congress.

Jon immediately became a trailblazer for shining much-needed light into every corner of our government. Jon made history the very first day he took office, fulfilling a campaign promise to hold himself accountable by becoming the first member of Congress to post his daily public schedule online for all Montanans to see. He continues to post his schedule to this day.

And after helping pass the most sweeping ethics reforms since Watergate, he went beyond those rules and banned all gifts, meals, and travel from lobbyists for himself and his staff.

Jon has fought to end automatic pay raises for members of Congress and sponsored legislation to make government records available in a searchable Internet database at no charge to the public.

Jon has pushed multiple bills to crack down on special interests and dark money in politics, and has introduced a Constitutional Amendment to overturn the Citizens United decision and say corporations aren’t people.

He also voluntarily files his campaign finance reports online, and is the author of legislation that would require all Senate candidates to do so.

Jon knows the problems in Washington are because of both parties and that real change starts with holding both parties, Congress and government accountable.

PROTECTING OUR RURAL WAY OF LIFE
Jon and his wife Sharla still farm the same land Jon’s grandparents homesteaded in the early 1900’s. He grew up in Big Sandy, attended school there, and came back to teach at the same school he graduated from. His Montana roots run deep.

In the United States Senate, Jon fights for rural Montana. He defends farmers and ranchers from burdensome regulations, fights to maintain critical services like Farm Service Agency offices and the Essential Air Service, and he delivers on investments in rural infrastructure.

Jon is bringing Montana common sense to Washington. He is pushing back against Washington bureaucrats who don’t know the difference between a tractor and a combine. He’s reined in Washington overreach by modernizing livestock auctions and reduced burdensome regulations on cow pies that were never intended for farmers and ranchers. He’s held several in-person farm bill listening sessions across the state to ensure Montana producers have a seat at the negotiating table. As a farmer, Jon knows producers need access to markets and he has fought for fair trade deals that will help Montana farmers and ranchers.

Growing up off of a dirt road, miles from pavement, Jon understands the need for investments in Montana’s infrastructure. Jon’s fought for critical funds to Montana counties that help build roads, bridges, and schools across the state. He’s been a strong advocate for rural broadband. Jon believes rural broadband will help bring jobs back to Montana and he’s fought relentlessly to deliver investments across Montana. He’s held big telecom companies, like Verizon, accountable to their Montana customers.

Jon fights for rural Montana and will not stop until Washington is held accountable.

Matt Rosendale is a real estate developer from Maryland. He made his millions turning farmland in Maryland into developments. Now he’s got his sights set on Montana. Rosedale moved to Montana, bought a trophy ranch, and launched his political career. He even voted repeatedly for land use rules that would hurt Montana farmers and ranchers, but help developers like him. And Rosendale has failed to stand up against disastrous trade policies that are hurting Montana agriculture – he even said that farmers suffering because of tariffs was all part of the “negotiation process.” Rosendale’s anti-public lands, anti-public education, and pro-dark money stances show he does not share our values. He wants to make Montana look a little bit more like his native east-coast.

DEFENDING NATIVE AMERICAN RIGHTS
Jon is working tirelessly in Washington to deliver for Indian Country. Jon believes we need to keep our promises to our Native American brothers and sisters, maintain tribal sovereignty, and respect treaty rights.

Jon’s willing to work with anyone to strengthen tribal law enforcement, bring more teachers to Indian Country, and hold the Indian Health Service accountable. Jon’s visited all 7 reservations and is fighting to get the Little Shell Tribe federally recognized.

Jon will stop at nothing to defend Montana’s tribes and ensure Washington is accountable to them.

However, Matt Rosendale is a millionaire East Coast developer whose record shows he wouldn’t respect tribal sovereignty or fight to ensure the federal government upholds its treaty obligations to our tribal nations. Matt Rosendale’s record shows he is no friend to Indian Country. He’s voted against the CSKT water compact, against expanding tuition assistance for native students, and would rip health care away from thousands of Native Americans.

DEFENDING RURAL ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE AND DRIVING DOWN COSTS
Jon is relentlessly fighting to defend Montana’s access to affordable health care.

Jon believes we need to fix the current health care law to deliver better and cheaper care for all Montanans. He fought back against Washington plans to gut health care in rural communities, end Medicaid expansion, and increase the number of uninsured in Montana.

Montanans deserve access to affordable health care and Jon is working tirelessly in Washington to deliver. He has proposed legislation to increase the number of residencies in rural America, reduce the cost of prescription drugs, and close the gap on insurance costs for middle class families.

Jon is a champion of Community Health Centers and the Healthy Montana Kids program. He knows the critical role both play in Montana communities. He’s relentlessly defended rural health care and has fought to preserve Critical Access Hospitals across the state. And he will stand up to any Washington politician who tries to play political games with these health care investments.

Jon will go to the mat to defend Montanans’ Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare. As Washington politicians look to balance the budget on the backs of Montana seniors, Jon will always have Montanans’ backs.

As Montana’s Insurance Commissioner, Matt Rosendale rubber stamped higher insurance rates for Montana families. He’s supported policies that would jack up costs even more on Montanans, and remove protections for folks with pre-existing conditions like cancer and pregnancy. He’s pushed shady, short-term health care policies that don’t cover pre-existing conditions, and has made it more difficult for Montana families to stay covered. He opposed a bipartisan measure that strengthened Montana’s community health centers and drug treatment courts, but backed a bill that would have cut access to rural health care and increased the cost of prescription drugs. He’s looking to balance the budget on the back of Montana’s seniors and working families and his policies would lead to thousands of Montanans being left without coverage and our rural hospitals being forced to board up their doors.

[84]

”
—Matt Rosendale’s campaign website (2018)[85]

Republican Party Matt Rosendale

Rosendale’s campaign website stated the following:

“

VETERANS As the son and brother of U.S. Marines, I stand strongly with our veterans. They have made such sacrifices for our nation and their families, and they deserve to be treated with respect and receive the care they were promised. Unfortunately, this hasn’t always been the case.

The VA is in abysmal shape and it’s a direct result of the lack of leadership and accountability there. I’ll fight the D.C. status quo in the Senate and work to unwind the red tape at the V.A. Too many veterans are put on long wait lists, aren’t able to see a doctor in a reasonable amount of time and can’t get the health care they need. This is disgraceful. Our veterans deserve so much better.

I’m committed to fixing this problem, listening to our veterans, and getting them the health care they were promised. We as a nation need to do better by them.

My wife and I are also proud to be supporters of the Wounded Warriors program, opening up our home and ranch to veterans and their families to recreate and hunt.

SUPREME COURT One of the greatest responsibilities of a U.S. Senator is to review and confirm nominations to the Supreme Court. I will support nominees like Justice Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, who are both extremely qualified and have a proven record of upholding the Constitution and following the rule of law. I will strongly oppose activist judges who want to re-write the U.S. Constitution to push their radical liberal progressive agenda.

PROTECT MONTANA’S PUBLIC LANDS The people of Montana have made it very clear that they oppose a federal lands transfer. I have listened to them and completely agree – NO FEDERAL TRANSFER OF OUR PUBLIC LANDS!

I’m committed to protecting and expanding access to our public lands. I’ll fight back against the Washington bureaucrats who put up gates and lock us out from accessing our public lands and I’ll take on the radical environmentalists who sue to shut down the proper management of our forests. Watching our forests burn every summer isn’t smart policy and I’ll fight to bring much needed reform for more state and local management. I’ll make sure that our public lands can always be enjoyed by all Montanans.

As a member of the State Land Board, I’ve been responsible for managing and expanding access to over 5 million acres of school trust lands. I’ve worked diligently to grant easements and authorize land purchases to nearly 45,000 acres of previously hard-to-reach areas and 16 miles of public roads that are now accessible for hunting, fishing and other recreational activities for generations of Montanans to come.

When you hear the false attacks start and the special interests try to manipulate my record – make no mistake – I will always fight to protect and defend our public lands. As your next U.S. Senator, our public lands will always stay in public hands.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION Under both Republican and Democrat administrations, the rule of law has been ignored and illegal immigrants have been allowed to flow freely into this country without consequence. It’s not just dangerous, it’s unacceptable and it needs to stop. We need to secure the border, build the wall, deport criminals, and put an end to sanctuary cities. It’s time we restore law and order to this country. We have an obligation to put America first – not illegal immigrants.

HEALTH CARE I won’t give up on repealing and replacing Obamacare. Montana families have been devastated with higher premiums and higher deductibles that have made health care completely unaffordable. President Trump has taken important steps to dismantle this disastrous law by removing the individual mandate and removing limits on health plan options. I’ll continue working to expand access and reduce health care costs because we must provide more affordable options and better care to all Montanans while also protecting those with pre-existing conditions.

FIGHT FOR SOCIAL SECURITY & MEDICARE I will always fight to preserve and protect Medicare and Social Security benefits for Montana seniors.

These benefits were earned and promised to our seniors - and I won’t stand by and allow Washington politicians from either party cut or take away these benefits.

I will always honor our commitment to Montana seniors. My mom and dad received these benefits and I know countless Montanans who depend on this safety net to make ends meet. I will always fight to protect these vital programs for our seniors.

2ND AMENDMENT I will always defend our Second Amendment Rights. The Constitution couldn’t be clearer: “The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.”

Just like I did in Helena, I will always protect our right to own a gun and fight back against any attempt from Washington bureaucrats to take them away. Right now, our Montana way of life is under assault and you deserve a U.S. Senator who you can count on to defend our right to keep and bear arms. Our Second Amendment Rights are not up for negotiation - period!

[84]

”
—Matt Rosendale’s campaign website (2018)[86]

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Jon Tester Facebook

Republican Party Matt Rosendale Facebook

Libertarian Party Rick Breckenridge Facebook

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 56 Montana counties—5.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Blaine County, Montana 2.46% 15.32% 19.24%
Hill County, Montana 17.18% 3.50% 12.21%
Roosevelt County, Montana 6.49% 15.58% 26.27%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Montana with 56.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 35.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, Montana voted Republican 65.6 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Montana voted Republican all five times.[87]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Montana. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[88][89]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 28 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 34.7 points. Trump won 14 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

Election history

2014

U.S. Senate, Montana General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngSteve Daines 57.8% 213,709
     Democratic Amanda Curtis 40.1% 148,184
     Libertarian Roger Roots 2.1% 7,933
Total Votes 369,826
Source: Montana Secretary of State

2012

U.S. Senate, Montana General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJon Tester Incumbent 48.6% 236,123
     Republican Denny Rehberg 44.9% 218,051
     Libertarian Dan Cox 6.6% 31,892
Total Votes 486,066

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. Senate wave elections
Year President Party Election type Senate seats change Senate majority[90]
1932 Hoover R Presidential -13 D (flipped)
1958 Eisenhower R Second midterm -12 D
1946 Truman D First midterm -10 R (flipped)
1980 Carter D Presidential -9 R (flipped)
2014 Obama D Second midterm -9 R (flipped)
1942 Roosevelt D Third midterm -8 D
2008 George W. Bush D Presidential -8 D
1926 Coolidge R First midterm[91] -7 R
1930 Hoover R First midterm -7 R
1986 Reagan R Second midterm -7 D (flipped)

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Montana heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Montana State Legislature. They had a 59-41 majority in the state House and a 32-18 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Montana was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Steve Bullock (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Montana elections, 2018

Montana held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Montana
 MontanaU.S.
Total population:1,032,073316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):145,5463,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:89.2%73.6%
Black/African American:0.5%12.6%
Asian:0.7%5.1%
Native American:6.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:92.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:29.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,169$53,889
Persons below poverty level:17%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Montana.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Montana's three largest cities were Billings (pop. est. 109,642), Missoula (pop. est. 73,340), and Great Falls (pop. est. 58,876).[92][93]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Montana from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Montana Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Montana every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Montana 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 55.6% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 35.4% 20.2%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 55.3% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.7% 13.6%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 49.5% Democratic Party Barack Obama 47.2% 2.3%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 59.1% Democratic Party John Kerry 38.6% 20.5%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 58.4% Democratic Party Al Gore 33.4% 25.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Montana from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Montana 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Steve Daines 57.9% Democratic Party Amanda Curtis 40.0% 17.9%
2012 Democratic Party Jon Tester 48.6% Republican Party Denny Rehberg 44.6% 4.0%
2008 Democratic Party Max Baucus 72.9% Republican Party Bob Kelleher 27.1% 45.8%
2006 Democratic Party Jon Tester 49.2% Republican Party Conrad Burns 48.3% 0.9%
2002 Democratic Party Max Baucus 62.7% Republican Party Mike Taylor 31.7% 31.0%
2000 Republican Party Conrad Burns 50.6% Democratic Party Brian Schweitzer 47.2% 3.4%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Montana.

Election results (Governor), Montana 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Steve Bullock 50.2% Republican Party Greg Gianforte 46.4% 3.8%
2012 Democratic Party Steve Bullock 48.9% Republican Party Jon Sonju 47.3% 1.6%
2008 Democratic Party Brian Schweitzer 65.5% Republican Party Roy Brown 32.5% 33.0%
2004 Democratic Party Brian Schweitzer 50.4% Republican Party Bob Brown 46.0% 4.4%
2000 Republican Party Judy Martz 51.0% Democratic Party Mark O'Keefe 47.1% 3.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Montana in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Montana 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2014 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2012 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2010 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2008 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2006 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2004 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2002 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2000 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Montana Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R
Senate D D D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
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See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ If one missed the Oct. 9 deadline, he or she could have still voted in the election by registering in person at the county election office. Late registration was available until the close of polls on Election Day.
  2. ↑ If one missed the Oct. 9 deadline, he or she could have still voted in the election by registering in person at the county election office. Late registration was available until the close of polls on Election Day.
  3. ↑ Jon Tester: The Right Man to Represent Montana, "About," accessed October 22, 2011
  4. ↑ Politico, "‘I don’t think they can beat who I am,’" April 18, 2018
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Jon Tester for Senate, "Meet Jon," accessed September 11, 2018
  6. ↑ U.S. News and World Report, "Biographical Information About Matt Rosendale," June 4, 2018
  7. ↑ Montana Republican Party, "Senate District 19, Representative Matthew Rosendale," accessed June 2, 2014 (Archived)
  8. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Senate, "Home," accessed October 8, 2018
  9. ↑ YouTube, "Matt Rosendale," accessed September 11, 2018
  10. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Senate, "About," accessed September 11, 2018
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Montana Libertarian Party, "Candidates," accessed September 11, 2018
  12. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  13. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  14. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  15. ↑ Axios, "The midwestern Senate race getting a $2 million boost from Trump's allies," September 26, 2018
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 Politico, "‘Disgraceful’: Trump super PAC unloads on Tester in new ad," May 1, 2018
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 Roll Call, "Bank Group Plans Midterm Ads, Starting With Tester, Budd," April 25, 2018
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 Independent Record, "Americans for Prosperity-Montana has $560k ad buy attacking Tester," April 19, 2018
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 FEC, "INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURES," July 5, 2018
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 FEC, "FILING FEC-1257305," August 18, 2018
  21. ↑ 21.0 21.1 Politico, "Priorities USA’s big takeaways," July 26, 2018
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 League of Conservation Voters, "Wilks brothers -- largest private landowners in Montana -- have paid Rosendale’s company thousands in royalties as they’ve shut off access to public lands," July 9, 2018
  23. ↑ Credit Union National Association, "CUNA launches first round of IEs for 2018 midterms," October 17, 2018
  24. ↑ FEC, "FILING FEC-1261026," September 12, 2018
  25. ↑ FEC, "FILING FEC-1260253," September 6, 2018
  26. ↑ FEC, "FILING FEC-1260362," September 6, 2018
  27. ↑ Breitbart, "Exclusive — Restoration PAC Ad: Jon Tester ‘Fakes Montana Values Around Election Time’; Matt Rosendale ‘Lives Them Every Day’," March 22, 2018
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 Twitter, "James Arkin on October 10, 2018"
  29. ↑ Twitter, "Zach C. Cohen on October 23, 2018"
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 30.2 ProPublica, "Montana’s At-Large Senate Race - 2018 cycle," accessed May 22, 2018
  31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 FEC, "FILING FEC-1255843," accessed August 13, 2018
  32. ↑ Politico, "The Q3 fundraising toplines," October 16, 2018
  33. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  34. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  35. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  36. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  37. ↑ Billings Gazette, "President Trump bashes Tester, reviews his own greatest hits at Great Falls rally," July 5, 2018
  38. ↑ 38.0 38.1 KBZK News, "LIVE: Vice President Mike Pence visit to Bozeman," October 2, 2018
  39. ↑ 39.0 39.1 Helena Independent Record, "Trump Jr. returns to Montana to campaign for Rosendale in Bozeman," September 18, 2018
  40. ↑ Great Falls Tribune, "Biden rallies Democrats to return Tester to Senate," March 11, 2018
  41. ↑ The Missoulian, "Former Vice President Joe Biden energizes Democrats at sold-out event in Helena," March 10, 2018
  42. ↑ Great Falls Tribune, "NRA endorses Gianforte and Rosendale, targets Tester," September 12, 2018
  43. ↑ Politico, "Trump officials irked that Border Patrol union endorsed 3 Senate Democrats," October 26, 2018
  44. ↑ Billings Gazette, "Outdoor clothing company Patagonia endorses Tester," October 19, 2018
  45. ↑ 45.0 45.1 45.2 Great Falls Tribune, "Rosendale touts Ted Cruz, Mike Lee endorsements," December 7, 2017
  46. ↑ Matt for Montana, "Senator Rand Paul Endorses Matt Rosendale for U.s. Senate," January 29, 2018
  47. ↑ U.S. News and World Report, "Michael Flynn to Campaign for Montana Senate Candidate," April 24, 2018
  48. ↑ KMMS, "Dan Quayle endorses Troy Downing," March 9, 2018
  49. ↑ 49.0 49.1 49.2 49.3 49.4 Russ for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 1, 2018
  50. ↑ 50.0 50.1 50.2 50.3 50.4 Sidney Herald, "Rosendale says he’s best chance to take Senate seat from Tester," February 10, 2018
  51. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  52. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  53. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  54. ↑ 54.0 54.1 54.2 54.3 Russ Fagg for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed March 5, 2018
  55. ↑ Troy Downing for Senate, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  56. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  57. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  58. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named murray
  59. ↑ Lone Peak Lookout, "Big Sky’s biggest name in politics," February 15, 2018
  60. ↑ Politico, "Jon Tester in danger as Trump seeks vengeance," October 31, 2018
  61. ↑ YouTube, "Trump holds 'MAGA' rally in Montana," October 18, 2018
  62. ↑ CBS News, "'Look at all the fake news back there': Trump speaks at rally one day after explosive op-ed," September 6, 2018
  63. ↑ Great Falls Tribune, "Montana Chamber passes on endorsing Senate race," June 18, 2018
  64. ↑ Great Falls Tribune, "When will Senate candidates face off? It's debatable," June 11, 2018
  65. ↑ Politico, "Morning Score," March 9, 2018
  66. ↑ Great Falls Tribune, "Tester woos Trump voters in Montana Senate campaign," March 12, 2018
  67. ↑ CNN, "Ronny Jackson withdraws as VA secretary nominee," April 26, 2018
  68. ↑ Politico, "‘Jon poked the bear’: Tester braces for Trump’s revenge," April 26, 2018
  69. ↑ Press Democrat, "Trump says Montana Democratic senator should quit over VA nomination fallout," April 28, 2018
  70. ↑ Maryland Matt, "Home," accessed October 15, 2018
  71. ↑ YouTube, "Cosmopolitan Castle," July 24, 2018
  72. ↑ New York Times, "Kavanaugh Is Sworn In After Close Confirmation Vote in Senate Video," October 6, 2018
  73. ↑ Great Falls Tribune, "Montana Sen. Tester a 'no' vote on Kavanaugh confirmation," September 28, 2018
  74. ↑ AP News, "Montana Senate candidates clash over Kavanaugh nomination," September 30, 2018
  75. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named green
  76. ↑ 76.0 76.1 76.2 76.3 The Hill, "Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester," July 10, 2018
  77. ↑ KTVQ, "Montana Green Party facing apparent challenge to its 2018 ballot status," March 26, 2018
  78. ↑ KTQV, "Dems go to court to remove Green Party from Montana ballot," April 3, 2018
  79. ↑ The Hill, "Green Party puts Dem seat at risk in Montana," April 6, 2018
  80. ↑ Independent Record, "Decision not expected soon in Montana Democrats' attempt to get Green Party off ballot," April 24, 2018
  81. ↑ Independent Record, "Secretary of state to appeal order removing Green Party from ballot," July 11, 2018
  82. ↑ The Helena Independent Record, "State files appeal to allow Green Party access on Montana ballots," July 19, 2018
  83. ↑ U.S. News and World Report, "Montana Supreme Court Upholds Green Party's Ballot Removal," August 21, 2018
  84. ↑ 84.0 84.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  85. ↑ Jon Tester for Senate, “Issues,” accessed September 11, 2018
  86. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Senate, “Issues,” accessed September 11, 2018
  87. ↑ 270towin.com, "Montana," accessed June 29, 2017
  88. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  89. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  90. ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
  91. ↑ Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
  92. ↑ Montana Demographics, "Montana Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
  93. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Montana," accessed September 4, 2018
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Montana's current delegation to the United States Congress
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